A UN-network of scientists concluded last year that emissions have to be cut by at least half by 2050 to avoid an increase in world temperatures of between 3.6 and 4.2 degrees above pre-18th century levels. 'Meeting this target of 50 percent cut in emissions represents a formidable challenge, and we would require immediate policy action and technological transition on an unprecedented scale,' IEA Executive Director Nobuo Tanaka said.
Scientists say temperature increases beyond that could trigger devastating effects, such as widespread loss of species, famines and droughts, and swamping of heavily populated coastal areas by rising oceans.
Environment ministers from the Group of Eight industrialized countries and Russia backed the 50 percent target in a meeting in Japan last month and called for it to be officially endorsed at the G-8 summit in July.
The IEA report maps out two main global energy technology scenarios, in addition to a baseline 'business as usual case'; one in which emissions are reduced to 2005 levels by 2050, and a second that would bring them to half of 2005 levels by mid-century.
The scenario for deeper cuts would require massive investment in energy technology development and deployment, a wide-ranging campaign to dramatically increase energy efficiency, and a wholesale shift to renewable sources of energy.
Assuming an average 3.3 percent global economic growth over the 2010-2050 period, governments and the private sector would have to make additional investments of $45 trillion in energy, or 1.1 percent of the world’s gross domestic product, the report said.
The second scenario also calls for an accelerated ramping up of development of so-called 'carbon capture and storage' technology allowing coal-powered power plants to catch emissions and inject them underground.
The study said that an average of 35 coal-powered plants and 20 gas-powered power plants would have to be fitted with carbon capture and storage equipment each year between 2010 and 2050.
In addition, the world would have to construct 32 new nuclear power plants each year, and wind-power turbines would have to be increased by 17,000 units annually. Nations would have to achieve an eight-fold reduction in carbon intensity - the amount of carbon needed to produce a unit of energy - in the transport sector.
Such action would drastically reduce oil demand to 27 percent of 2005 demand. Failure to act would lead to a doubling of energy demand and a 130 percent increase in carbon dioxide emissions by 2050, which IEA director, Dolf Gielen noted was not sustainable.
Gielen said most of the $45 trillion forecast investment - about $27 trillion - would be borne by developing countries, which will be responsible for two-thirds of greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. Most of the money would be in the commercialization of energy technologies developed by governments and the private sector.
'If industry is convinced there will be policy for serious, deep CO2 emission cuts, then these investments will be made by the private sector,' Gielen said.
To coincide with the IEA report, Greenpeace released a report downplaying the need for nuclear energy and carbon capture and storage. The Greenpeace report, 'Energy Revolution - A Sustainable Japan Energy Outlook,' shows how a combination of renewable energy technologies and energy efficiency would provide a cost-effective pathway towards energy security with a minimal impact on the climate system. It demonstrates how Japan could be independent from volatile fossil fuel market fluctuations as well as the dangers of nuclear energy.
'A combination of renewable energy sources and energy efficiency is the smartest, safest and cheapest way to combat climate change and enhance energy security. While Greenpeace’s energy scenario work and the IEAs forecast match in terms of the potential for renewable energy it is clear from our Energy Revolution scenario that nuclear power and carbon storage are not needed, and worse they divert funds from genuine climate solutions,' SvenTeske energy expert from Greenpeace International and co-author of the study.
According to the Greenpeace scenario, Japan can produce more than 60% of its electricity from renewable energy sources by 2050 making the country less dependent on imported fossil fuels and allowing for cheaper electricity. It also calls on the Japanese government to embrace a low-carbon alternative for the development of its energy sector ahead of the G8 energy minister’s conference in Aomori.
'Various types of action in all sectors of society are needed to avert further increase of global warming. For governments a change of energy policy is at the top of agenda' says Manami Suzuki, Energy Expert from Greenpeace Japan. 'Greenpeace urges G8 energy ministers to spend more time on how to shift their policies from dirty energy production toward clean and renewable futures.'
It is a message strongly reinforced by the Endless Energy Report, published by the GLOBE Foundation and written in partner with BC Hydro, Day 4 Energy, the Canadian National Research Council, Power Technology Alliance and Western Economic Diversification, provides a regional guide to energy self sufficiency at a low economic cost using biomass hydro solar, wind and waste to energy systems.
The Endless Energy Report establishes a renewable energy roadmap for a specific region, British Columbia. The report emphasizes that regional solutions for energy independence may provide most comprehensive and low cost results for achieving clean energy solutions and mitigating climate change.
'An Endless Energy economy in action would be an impressive feat, and one that is entirely achievable,' notes Dr. John Wiebe, President and CEO of the GLOBE Foundation. 'Through the practical application of developing technologies and the capabilities of Canadians, Endless Energy can become a reality.'
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