climate modeling Articles
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Ability of global climate models at a regional scale over Australia
We evaluate the coupled climate models used in the fourth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Our evaluation is focused on twelve regions of Australia for the daily simulation of precipitation, minimum temperature and maximum temperature. We base our evaluation on Probability Density Functions (PDFs). We introduce a simple quantitative measure of how well ...
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Thermodynamics of climate change
Climate modelling is discussed from a thermodynamic point of view, using a control volume approach in which the environment and a superficial layer of the earth form the volume, concentric spherical shell of predominantly gaseous content with a thin layer of the earth. An energy equation that includes anthropogenic heat is suggested based on the mass balance of fossil fuel introduced into the ...
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Expected trends of regional climate change for the Carpathian Basin for the 21st century
The Regional Climate Models (RCMs) nested into Global Climate Models (GCMs) are expected to improve the regional climate change scenarios for the European subregions. This paper discusses the RCM experiments for the end of the 21st century using the model Providing REgional Climates for Impact Studies (PRECIS) for the Carpathian Basin. Expected future changes in mean values, distributions and ...
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Climate variations for the last millennium
Variability and long-term climate change in the Baltic Sea region have been investigated in a 1000-year long climate model simulation. For the first time long-term climate variations over the region have been simulated with a regional climate model. Solar variability, changes in orbital parameters and changes in greenhouse gases over the last millennium are used to force the models. The results ...
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Modelling land cover change impact on the summer climate of the Marmara Region, Turkey
Landscape characteristics of the Marmara Region, Turkey, changed significantly after the 1980s as a result of rapid industrialisation and population increase. To investigate the effects of these land cover changes on the summer regional climate, we implemented 1975 and 2005 land cover maps of the region produced from Landsat images into the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) regional climate ...
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Uncertainty of climate change and its impact on reference evapotranspiration in Rasht City, Iran
There are many factors of uncertainty regarding the impact of climate change on reference evapotranspiration (ETo). The accuracy of the results is strictly related to these factors and ignoring any one of them reduces the precision of the results, and reduces their applicability for decision makers. In this study, the uncertainty related to two ETo models, the Hargreaves-Samani (HGS) and ...
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Northern shipping: Is the anticipated climate boost a bust?
Visions of safe passage for cargo ships across the Arctic between Europe and Asia have sprung up in recent years as ice-free zones have appeared along the northern coasts of Russia and Canada. Some shipping companies already have begun taking advantage of the change. But dreamers and schemers may want to think twice about the long-term promise of the so-called Northern Sea Route for boosting ...
By Ensia
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Analysis of regional climate change modelling experiments for the Carpathian Basin
In the last decade, Regional Climate Models (RCMs) nested in Global Climate Models (GCMs) have become essential tools to make climate projections with fine spatial resolution. In this paper, control runs of the RCMs RegCM and PRECIS are discussed and compared for the Central/Eastern European region. Both RCMs are three-dimensional, sigma-coordinate, primitive equation models, for the control ...
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Towards a definition of climate science
The intrinsic difficulties in building realistic climate models and in providing complete, reliable and meaningful observational datasets, and the conceptual impossibility of testing theories against data imply that the usual Galilean scientific validation criteria do not apply to climate science. The different epistemology pertaining to climate science implies that its answers cannot be singular ...
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Less snow won’t end blizzard hazard
There’s still a chance that some people who dream of a white Christmas will get their wish. While there may be less snow falling overall in a warming world, there will still be blizzards. Paul O’Gorman, an atmospheric scientist at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology in the US, reports in Nature that he studied daily snowfall in the northern hemisphere through the prism of 20 ...
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Downscaling of precipitation on a lake basin: evaluation of rule and decision tree induction algorithms
We investigate the performance of existing state-of-the-art rule induction and tree algorithms, namely Single Conjunctive Rule Learner, Decision Table, M5 Model Tree, Decision Stump and REPTree. Downscaling models are developed using these algorithms to obtain projections of mean monthly precipitation to lake-basin scale in an arid region in India. The effectiveness of these algorithms is ...
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Assessment of climate change impacts in a semi-arid watershed in Iran using regional climate models
This paper aims to summarize in detail the results of the climate models under various scenarios by temporal and spatial analysis in the semi-arid Karkheh Basin (KB) in Iran, which is likely to experience water shortages. The PRECIS and REMO models, under A2, B2 and A1B scenarios, have been chosen as regional climate models (RCMs). These regional climate models indicate an overall warming in ...
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Regional climate change impacts and freshwater systems: focusing the adaptation research agenda
Regional climate models can provide useful insights for research on water-sector adaptation to climate change. Results are presented from a RegCM2 study that investigates the effect of a doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide upon climate for a domain centred over California. By the expected time of doubling, 2060, results show generally increasing surface temperatures, altered precipitation ...
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Climate change adaptation in British Columbia communities: lessons for planners
The purpose of this paper is to explore community adaptation to climate change. We illustrate how a workshop format can be used to raise awareness about the need for adaptation in communities and to engage planners in finding solutions. Professionals can no longer rely on the past as a proxy for the future. Communities will have to become more resilient to an uncertain future, and planners must ...
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Climate change and Water Harvesting possibilities in arid regions
In arid and semiarid regions, water resources are scarce and need climate change impact assessment for water conservation after each storm rainfall as rainfall harvesting in urban areas and runoff harvesting in rural areas. It is the main purpose of this paper to present necessary Water Harvesting (WH) preparation principles by considering simple climate change models for the Arabian Peninsula ...
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Impact of climate change on future stream flow in the Dakbla river basin
A systematic ensemble high-resolution climate modelling study over Vietnam was performed and future hydrological changes over the small catchment of Dakbla, Central Highland region of Vietnam, were studied. Using the widely used regional climate model WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting), future climate change over the period 2091–2100 was ascertained. The results indicate that surface ...
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The optimal paths of climate change mitigation and adaptation under certainty and uncertainty
Tradeoffs between climate change mitigation and adaptation policies are explored under both certainty and uncertainty with learning using a numerical two-period decision model. We first replicate a version of the Adaptation in DICE climate model (AD-DICE) (de Bruin et al., 2009), which modifies the Dynamic Integrated model of Climate and the Economy (DICE) (Nordhaus and Boyer, 2000) to ...
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Climate change impact on rainfall and temperature in Muda irrigation area using multicorrelation matrix and downscaling method
Statistical downscaling model was used to generate 30-year climate trend of Kedah – the state which has the largest cultivation area in Malaysia, resulting from climate changes. To obtain a better predictors set, multicorrelation matrix analysis was added in the climate model as a screening tool to explain the multiple correlation relationship among 26 predictors and 20 predictands. The ...
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Dynamical versus statistical downscaling for the generation of regional climate change scenarios at a Western Mediterranean basin: the Júcar River District
Current climate change (CC) predictions for the Western Mediterranean show a significant increase in temperature, and a decrease in precipitations, with great variability depending on general circulation models (GCM) and downscaling approaches. This paper analyses how dynamic downscaling improves statistically based CC scenarios. The study area was the Júcar River Basin (JB), with results ...
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Tetra–stable bifurcation structure of the climate system of Earth: mechanisms triggering potential transition to the greenhouse steady state
The emissions of human–made greenhouse gases may trigger transition from the pre–industrial climate to the greenhouse steady state, which was for the last time abandoned 49 million years ago. The study provides an energy balance climate model with temperature–dependent parameters, which illustrates the tetra–stable bifurcation structure of the climate system. Bifurcation structures can evolve in ...
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