A computer simulation model for emerging technology business planning and forecasting
This paper reports on the development and application of a computer simulation model designed to: (1) assist technical professionals in developing business plans for emerging technologies in emerging markets; and (2) provide a realistic simulation of this process for professional development and university courses in business and management of technology (MOT). By incorporating key concepts from finance, market and competitive analysis, and MOT, the model guides the user through a series of assumptions and decisions to arrive at a ten-year financial plan. To overcome the most important limitations of traditional business planning models, the model also incorporates two additional stages in which alternative scenarios are introduced to bind the range of possible outcomes and focus the user on the key issues that must be addressed in commercialising emerging technologies.
Keywords: business forecasting, business planning, emerging technologies, international marketing, market modelling, scenario analysis, simulation modelling, technology management