Inderscience Publishers

A Conceptual Framework for transition modelling

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This paper presents a Conceptual Framework (CF) for analysing and simulating transition dynamics (or radical systemic innovation) that is broadly consistent with both empirical evidence and current theorising about transitions. The framework distinguishes between a dominant socio-technical regime and a number of socio-technical niches. The central feature of the framework is to describe how niches and regime interact to produce a transition dynamic involving either a transformation or a total overthrow of the dominant regime. We base the analysis on reviews of patterns observed in historical transitions, and provide a framework for analysing the processes involved in producing future 'sustainability transitions'.

Keywords: sustainability transitions, conceptual framework, agent-based modelling, sustainability assessment, transition modelling, simulation, radical systemic innovation, transition dynamics, sociotechnical regimes, sociotechnical niches, sustainable development

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