A decision support system to compare different strategies for achieving the Italian Kyoto Protocol commitment
In order to meet the Italian Kyoto Protocol commitment, in 2002 the Interministerial Committee for Economic Planning (CIPE) approved the national allocation plan for the reduction of Greenhouse Gases (GHGs), envisioning various alternative scenarios. In this paper an extended impact assessment of the plan is accomplished and some further options are conceived and analysed in order to find an optimal trade-off among the different economic, environmental and social items at stake. After the selection of a set of independent indicators, nine different scenarios for the GHG reductions were evaluated and they were sorted according to the principles of the multicriteria analysis. The results of the evaluation process show that the preferable options are also the ones realising a good compromise between economic investment and reduction of GHG emissions. Although the model is necessarily affected by some subjective choices, it has a high level of transparency and scientific reliability.
Keywords: greenhouse effect, Kyoto Protocol, decision support systems, DSS, multicriteria decision making, MCDM, nuclear energy, nuclear power, Italy, greenhouse gases, GHG, global warming