Inderscience Publishers

A fuzzy decision-making model for risk ranking with an application to an onshore gas refinery

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This paper aims to identify the important risks in Iranian onshore gas refinery plants and introduce new effective criteria. Risks are prioritised on the basis of the significance of impacts on typical project objectives in terms of cost, time, quality, safety and environmental sustainability. Then, this problem is defined in the Fuzzy Multicriteria Decision-Making (FMCDM) field. The Fuzzy Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (FTOPSIS) and Fuzzy Linear Programming Technique for Multidimensional Analysis of Preference (FLINMAP) methods are presented to rank the high risks. These two FMCDM modelling mechanisms are compared to find the better performance in project risk ranking. Moreover, a case study was conducted on the procedure of the proposed model and the results indicate that fuzzy LINMAP outperforms fuzzy TOPSIS. Therefore, the ranks of risks differ from one MCDM model to another. The selection of a proper MCDM model for risk ranking depends on the project's nature, the accuracy of data gathered on risk and experience.

Keywords: risk ranking, fuzzy MCDM, multicriteria decision making, FMCDM, gas refinery plants, Iran, modelling, refinery risks

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