Keywords: long-term scenarios, technology assessment, RTD policy, R&, D strategies, future energy systems
A longer-term outlook on future energy systems
This paper expands the outlook on future energy systems as it is presented in other contributions to this Special Issue in two ways. First, we put the medium-term scenarios developed by the TEEM Project into the context of longer-term studies. We do this by discussing the plausibility of possible continuations of the TEEM medium-term scenarios by existing longer-term studies. For this 'embedding' we have chosen a joint IIASA-WEC study, in which six global scenarios with different primary energy supply characteristics are reported for the time period from 1990 to 2100. Applying the obvious caveats, the environmental and technological implications of the IIASA-WEC scenarios can thus be thought of as consistent expansions of the implications drawn from the TEEM scenarios. The second expansion of the outlook presented in other papers of this Special Issue is a discussion of strategic aspects of European energy RTD policies in the light of the six global scenarios and the formulation of conclusions for European R&D strategies.