Keywords: electricity consumption, energy policy, cointegration, error correction model, ECM, Granger causality, Tunisia, energy demand forecasting, energy management, energy security, energy efficiency, electricity supply
A macroeconomic analysis of electricity consumption in Tunisia: energy policy implications
Electricity demand forecasting is becoming an essential instrument for energy management policy in a liberalised electricity market. To address the needs, an electricity consumption forecasting model based on macroeconomic factors for Tunisia during the period of 1971 to 2008 has been investigated. A cointegration and error correction model incorporated with causality analysis present an appropriate framework for studying the aggregate electricity demand. It is found that the there are long run relationships between electricity consumption, real income, population and the consumer price index. For causality results, it was found there are unidirectional relationships from electricity consumption to real income, from electricity consumption to consumer price index and from population to real income. The results from our study might be useful for the government in forming appropriate energy policies. Indeed, the policymaker would visibly pose problems for electricity security by increasing investment in the electricity supply sector in order to cope with the increasing demand and undertaking more research to sustain their social, economic and environmental needs by implementing an energy efficiency measures.