Keywords: global warming, integrated models, mitigation scenario, policy making, CO2, carbon dioxide, carbon emissions, average surface temperature, emissions reduction, carbon reduction
A simple integrated model of global warming and policymaking
This paper describes a simple integrated model of global warming due to anthropogenic CO2 emissions, which can be used by policy makers for quick screening of various mitigation scenarios to achieve desired carbon reduction targets. First, the constant airborne fraction model was generalised to establish a relationship between CO2 emissions and CO2 concentration in the atmosphere, which was then used to determine the global average surface temperature using Oglesby and Saltzman's general circulation model. Using these simple relationships, the forecast for CO2 emission, CO2 concentration and average global surface temperature was made for the years 2030 and 2050 under the Business As Usual (BAU) scenario. To achieve an acceptable target increase in global average surface temperature, several CO2 mitigation strategy models, as proposed by Socolow and Lam, were considered. The comparison of the predictions of the proposed model with those of other researchers suggests that, although simple, the proposed model is credible for the purpose of quick assessment of various CO2 mitigation scenarios.