Keywords: economic feasibility, ecological sustainability, modelling, sensitivity analysis, systems dynamics
Adaptation costs for sustainable development and ecological transitions: a presentation of the structural model M3ED with reference to French energy?economy?carbon dioxide emission prospects*
The aim of this paper is to assess the adaptation costs associated with the transition to a sustainable development path, taking the example of carbon dioxide emissions in the French economy. The model used is based on systems dynamics modelling and energy input-output analysis. This type of approach has the interesting property of precisely defining the nature of interactions between the different economic sectors, and between the economic sectors and the environment. This provides a framework within which to test different types of economic, technology and environment policy. In effect, according to our interests, it is necessary to measure problems of resources allocation or sequential choices between different alternatives why and how a particular solution comes to be selected from a multiplicity of alternatives. First, we characterise the methodological and conceptual specification of the model. Secondly, we locate specific properties of the model linked with both ecological sustainability and economic feasability constraints. Thirdly, a sensitivity test is applied concerning different control policy scenarios for the case of carbon dioxide emissions in the French economy.