Keywords: agent-based systems, multi-agent systems, agent-based simulation, diffusion models, conjoint analysis, electric cars, electric vehicles, e-mobility, innovation planning, radical innovation, discrete choice models, Germany
An agent-based method for planning innovations
Identifying potential demand for radical innovations is a major challenge for business planning. Nonetheless, decision making is still based on forecasts. Thus, better forecasting models lead to better decisions. This work suggests a new agent-based simulation model that merges concepts of diffusion models and discrete choice models. Thereby, a glimpse into market timing, market potential and the underlying individual preferences is possible. The model is applied in the study of Germany?s goal of 1,000,000 electric cars sold until 2020.