Analysis of Clam Farming Scenarios in Sacca di Goro Lagoon


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A scenario may be defined as a coherent, internally consistent and plausible description of a future state of the system under investigation (Ledoux et al., 2002). The rationale behind is to develop or study different sets of assumptions and consequences in order to avoid unsustainable development and future crisis. A scenario contains qualitative information with varying amounts of quantitative data depending on our present knowledge of the system and our ability to forecast actual trends in the future.

One of the general objectives of DITTY project is to promote and assist Integrated River Basin Management (IRBM) as defined in the Water Framework Directive (WFD, 2000/60/EC), in order to prevent and mitigate possible adverse conditions induced in the coastal lagoon by the development in the catchment but also to assure a sustainable development of the socio-economic activities in the coastal lagoon that will allow to define a “good ecological status” or “good ecological potential” which is expected to be achieved in 2015 according with the WFD. In this context, it is necessary to estimate which amount of human impact the coastal lagoon may tolerate, which is the admissible margin for maintaining these conditions (corridors of sustainability, see Fig.1) taken into account the non-linear cause-effect-relationship that links the pressures, e.g. nutrient loads, with the state of the ecosystem and the existence of thresholds, point of non-return and hysteresis effects.

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