Analysis of variation and relation of climate, hydrology and water quality in the lower Mekong River

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In order to determine the influence of climate and hydrology on water quality of the lower Mekong River, the long term monitoring data (from 1985 to 2004) of climatic, hydrological and water quality variables were analyzed. In general, water quality was ‘good’ or ‘very good’ for most of the investigated water quality parameters including DO, pH, conductivity, nitrate, phosphate and total phosphorus. All climatic and hydrological elements as well as most of the water quality parameters varied seasonally. Throughout the 18-year period, only evaporation, water level and TSS showed a significant pertinent trend. ARIMA models results reveal that among climatic and hydrological paremeters, water quality could be effectively predicted from the data of discharge flow and precipitation. The results showed good R2 (≥0.7) estimation between predicted and observed values for TSS, alkalinity and conductivity which are the chemically and biologically conservative parameters. For other water quality parameters such as Ca2 + , Mg2 + , Si, Cl−, NO3−, and SO42−, the predicting results by ARIMA model were reliable in shorter period than the above three mentioned variables.

Keywords: ARIMA, climate, hydrology, lower mekong river, water quality

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