Keywords: climate change, feedback, global change, integrated assessment, interdisciplinary modelling, system dynamics, water resources, carbon cycle, land use, population, surface water flow, water use, water quality, economy, Monte Carlo simulation
ANEMI: a new model for integrated assessment of global change
This paper describes a new model, ANEMI, for the integrated assessment of climate and global change. ANEMI reproduces the main characteristics of eight sectors of the society-biosphere-climate system - climate, carbon cycle, land use, population, surface water flow, water use, water quality, and the economy - and explores the manner in which interactions, or feedbacks, between these components determine the behaviour of the whole. The model's reference behaviour forms the basis of comparison for the set of experiments undertaken to date with the model; these experiments and their goals are summarised. A sample Monte Carlo simulation illustrates typical model behaviour, and shows how change in one model variable affects the others. Conclusions reiterate the value of integrated assessment modelling and describe future additions to the model.