Keywords: air pollution, air quality management, air quality modelling, dispersion model, emission inventory, model evaluation
Application of an ISCST3 model for predicting urban air pollution in the Izmir metropolitan area
A Gaussian atmospheric dispersion model, Industrial Source Complex Short Term (ISCST3), was used to estimate ground-level concentrations of sulphur dioxide (SO2) emitted from source categories of industrial and domestic heating in the city of Izmir, Turkey. Predictions were estimated for the year 2000 across a study area of 80 km x 100 km. Statistical analyses were carried out to evaluate the model performance by comparing predicted and observed SO2 concentrations at four ambient air quality monitoring stations using two main methods root mean square error (RMSE) and an index of agreement (d). The results showed that industry was found as the most air-polluting sector and industries located at outside of the metropolitan area were found to carry important risks for urban air quality. The most polluted area was found at a distance of about 1 km from a major petroleum refinery and a large petrochemical industry.