Keywords: uncertainty analysis, probability, groundwater quality, modelling, hydrocarbon, transport, reliability, Monte Carlo simulation, first-order reliability, benzene, groundwater contamination, water pollution, contaminant transport, probabilistic screening, environmental monitoring, environmental pollution, environmental protection
Application of first-order reliability method to modelling the fate and transport of benzene in groundwater
Parameter uncertainty plays a significant role in decision making regarding groundwater contamination and remediation, especially for non-conservative chemicals. This paper presents a probabilistic screening model to accommodate parameter uncertainty in the aquifer media, and physical–chemical parameters, using the first-order reliability method (FORM). The application of the developed model is illustrated on transport of benzene in groundwater. The results matched those obtained using the Monte Carlo simulation method, with a smaller number of functional evaluations. Parametric studies were conducted to estimate the effect of various parameters on the results.