Inderscience Publishers

Aral Sea partial restoration. II. Simulation of time-dependent processes

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Three operational scenarios produce water levels stabilised at 28.9, 27.2 and 25.7 m. A macro-engineering solution is considered. Increased runoff from Syr Darya and other freshwater sources raises the Aral Sea level by 1.4-3.5 m. Depending on the scenario, the Aral Sea returns to its 2005 elevation. Caspian Sea water importation, at flow rates of 14 km³/year leads to Aral Sea stabilisation at ~32 m. Some considerations of the macro-project's ecological, cultural and social consequences are examined.

Keywords: Aral Sea partial restoration, Caspian Sea, Black Sea, inter-basin water transfer, hydrology, overland pipelines, hydrological management, water levels, freshwater inputs, salty water, brine, seawater, economic evaluation, ecology, culture, social consequences

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