Are microbial indicators and pathogens correlated? A statistical analysis of 40 years of research
Indicator organisms are used to assess public health risk in recreational waters, to highlight periods of challenge to drinking water treatment plants, and to determine the effectiveness of treatment and the quality of distributed water. However, many have questioned their efficacy for indicating pathogen risk. Five hundred and forty cases representing independent indicator–pathogen correlations were obtained from the literature for the period 1970–2009. The data were analyzed to assess factors affecting correlations using a logistic regression model considering indicator classes, pathogen classes, water types, pathogen sources, sample size, the number of samples with pathogens, the detection method, year of publication and statistical methods. Although no single indicator was identified as the most correlated with pathogens, coliphages, F-specific coliphages,
Keywords: correlation, indicators, logistic regression, pathogens, sample size, water
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