Keywords: energy markets, imbalance management, wind energy, wind forecasting, offshore wind power, bidding strategy, regulating strategy, dual imbalance pricing, Netherlands, spot market revenues
Bidding and regulating strategies in a dual imbalance pricing system: case study for a Dutch wind producer
In this work, offshore wind power forecast and realisation data are combined with price information from the day-ahead market operated by the Amsterdam Power Exchange and from the imbalance market operated by the Dutch System Operator. This allows for computing spot-market revenues and imbalance penalties or gains for a wind power producer. Three different cases are evaluated: a perfect forecast, actual forecasting error distribution with median contracting and with 'optimal quantile' contracting. The optimal quantile is determined from the probability distribution of the random average wind power production and depends on price predictions for the spot and imbalance prices. The wind producer can use two down-regulating strategies to avoid being charged for excess energy during times when the surplus price becomes negative. The optimal quantile bidding combined with a strategy of down-regulating to contract level produces a comparable yearly revenue with that of an equivalent deterministic producer.