Regression models are among the most frequently used models to estimate pollutants event mean concentrations (EMC) in wet weather discharges in urban catchments. Two main questions dealing with the calibration of EMC regression models are investigated: i) the sensitivity of models to the size and the content of data sets used for their calibration, ii) the change of modelling results when models are re-calibrated when data sets grow and change with time when new experimental data are collected. Based on an experimental data set of 64 rain events monitored in a densely urbanised catchment, four TSS EMC regression models (two log-linear and two linear models) with two or three explanatory variables have been derived and analysed. Model calibration with the iterative re-weighted least squares method is less sensitive and leads to more robust results than the ordinary least squares method. Three calibration options have been investigated: two options accounting for the chronological order of the observations, one option using random samples of events from the whole available data set. Results obtained with the best performing non linear model clearly indicate that the model is highly sensitive to the size and the content of the data set used for its calibration.
Keywords: calibration, chronological evolution, models, model sensitivity, Nash criterion, RMSE, TSS EMC