BMI's Canada petrochemicals report examines how the country's petrochemicals industry isovercoming challenges related to feedstock access and growing global competitiveness. It assessesrecent developments and trends in the industry and looks at the enormous potential for growth,particularly in the under-exploited propylene product chain. It also analyses the role shale gas willplay in the rapidly evolving North American petrochemicals market.
Canada's chemicals and resins industry was driven by domestic demand in 2012, with BMIestimating domestic sales growth of 6.0%, while exports rose just 0.5%. Around 75% of chemicalsoutput is exported, with the US accounting for 75% of exports. The Canadian petrochemicals industryis highly sensitive to trends in the US, although the EU market is also prominent. The domesticmarket accounted for 80% of the growth in chemicals industry sales. While exports were back to neartheir pre-crisis 2007 peak and plateauing in 2012, domestic sales remained 25% below their previouspeak and growth will need to strengthen in the near term to assist with a return to full operating rates.
Growth rates in chemicals and plastics gradually declined throughout 2011 and 2012 as the industrywas affected by recessionary forces in Europe and increased US supply.
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BMI makes the following forecasts and observations:
In 2013, the industry will have to overcome feedstock cost challenges, a stronger Canadiandollar and higher labour and electricity costs.
Canada's chemistry industry could attract close to US$5bn in new investment over the nextdecade, according to estimates by the Chemistry Industry Association of Canada (CIAC). Ifsecured, the chemicals industry could lead economic growth and stimulate activity inpetrochemicals consuming industries.
Exploitation of non-conventional resources will therefore be pivotal to the industry's success.Shale gas exploitation is a game-changer for the Canadian petrochemicals industry withincreased ethane feedstock, both from domestic supplies and via pipeline from the US,providing the basis for sustaining and expanding olefins production going forward.
Canada is witnessing a rise in propane supplies due to a decline in exports to the US as aresult of shale gas output. Alongside rising oil-sands production in Alberta, propaneavailability opens up the possibility of the development of propylene and propylenederivative plants.
In BMI's Americas Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Ratings (RRRs) Canada remains in secondplace, with its score increasing 1.1 points to 77.7 points due to an improvement in its countryrisk component. This puts it comfortably 15.1 points ahead of Brazil and 8.4 points behindthe US.
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Table Of Contents
Canada Petrochemicals SWOT
Canada Political SWOT
Canada Economic SWOT
Global Petrochemicals Overview
Global Oil Products Price Outlook
Table: BMI's Refined Products Forecasts, 2010-2016
Table: Middle East Outperforms In Terms of Passenger Growth
Table: Canada Olefins Facilities
Table: Canada Polyolefins Facilities
Table: Canada Aromatics and Derivatives Facilities
Industry Trends And Developments
Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Ratings
Americas Regional Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Ratings
Table: Americas Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Ratings (Scores Out Of 100)
Canada Risk/Reward Ratings
Industry Forecast Scenario
Table: Canada Petrochemicals Forecasts, 2010-2017
Table: Canada - GDP By Expenditure, Real Growth %, 2008-2016
Table: Nova Chemicals Highlights (US$mn)
Glossary of Terms
Table: Glossary Of Petrochemicals Terms
Table: Canada's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
Table: Canada's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
Table: Canada's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
Table: Canada's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Chemicals And Petrochemicals Industry
Business Environment Ratings
Table: Petrochemicals Business Environment Indicators And Rationale
Table: Weighting Of Indicators