We have downgraded our non-hydropower renewable generation growth forecast for 2013 from 6.2% to 5.6% due to new data from the government. Conversely, we have revised up our long-term growth forecast from 5.5% to 6.3%, due to our expectations of economic growth and the country’s current power situation. That said, we note that economic viability could be lacking in many renewable energy projects in Chile because of a lack of regulatory support.
We forecast non-hydropower renewable energy generation to grow at 5.6% in Chile in 2013, down from our previous forecast of 6.2%. This downward revision is because of new government data on the country’s renewable energy capacity. In October 2012, Chile’s renewable energy center (CER) revealed that there was 155 megawatts (MW) of new non-hydropower capacity under construction at end-September. Additionally, some of these projects will only be completed after 2013, and we have moderated our forecasts down slightly to account for this.
We remain relatively upbeat over the long term, and have revised up our forecasts for growth in non hydropower renewable generation to average from 5.5% to 6.3% per annum between 2013 and 2021. Our revision was prompted by several factors, namely economic growth, the country’s current energy situation, and government data.
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The key trends and regulatory changes in the Chilean renewable industry are:
· In October 2012, the Chilean government dropped its target of 20% of the electricity grid
supplied from renewable energy by 2020.
· A period of drought occurred in late 2010 and early 2011, and led to severe power shortages.
Shortages have continued to occur, and power rationing measures were in place between early
2011 and April 2012.
· Plans to link the transmission systems in the north and the south of the country were announced
in February 2012.
· Siemens Energy won an order to supply 115MW of turbines for the El Arrayan power project in
May 2012, signaling continued attractiveness of the sector.
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