Vose Risk Consulting and Software

Climate change case study


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European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) commissioned a team of scientists to assess the change in vulnerability of EU Member States to infectious disease over the next fifty years as a result of projected changes in climate.

Vose lead the modelling part of the project, developing a range of indices that allowed ‘heat maps’ to be produced showing regions down to NUTS2 level that are at greatest and least risk. A team from Oxford University provided the GIS data and derivatives, and Avia-GIS, a Belgian geospatial mapping company, produced the maps.

The analysis investigated several different diseases with very different and often complex driving factors. For instance, voles carrying one disease are unlikely to survive during harsher winters in the more Southern member states, but are also less likely to survive in milder winters in Scandinavian member states (because the snow canopy insulates them and hides them from predators).

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