Keywords: DSS, decision support systems, climate change, technology development, ex ante cost-benefit analysis, agro-technology, social benefits, agriculture, economic development, salt water, saline water, soil salinity, drought resistant rice, SDR transgenic rice
Decision support system for ex ante cost-benefit assessment of new agro-technology in the context of climate change
Intrusion of saline water and soil salinity is a major threat of climate change to agriculture. Rice is the most important crop affected by salinity in the coastal area of Bangladesh. The objective of this paper is to develop tools for ex ante cost-benefit assessment, with an integration of knowledge of farmers, industry experts and scientists to develop new salinity and drought resistant (SDR) transgenic rice variety. Total incremental benefits of introducing SDR transgenic rice to replace traditional varieties are expected to be $948 ha
−1yielding a net benefit of $934 ha
−1. The introduction of transgenic SDR rice in Bangladesh would have sizable social benefits. The total amount of non-discounted economic surplus from producing SDR transgenic rice over 10 years is projected at US$188 million with a producer surplus of $114 million. The internal rate of return (IRR) is 34% with a net present value (NPV) of $117 million.