Keywords: bioenergy potential, biomass flow, biomass balance table, land use model, energy model, system dynamics
Dynamic analysis of biomass resources with a global land use and energy model
The purpose of the present study is to evaluate global bioenergy potential in consideration of land use competition using a global land use and energy model (GLUE) formulated with a system dynamics (SD) technique and a biomass balance table (BBT) that can show overall biomass flow and bioenergy potential quantitatively. Through a set of simulations, the following results were obtained: (1) The mature forest area in the developing region of the world will decrease from 2.1 billion hectares in 1990 to 0. 8 billion hectares in 2100, although we assume that perfect reforestation will be achieved by 2050; (2) There will be a large energy potential of biomass residues in the developing region. The maximum bioenergy potential in the developing region will be equal to 336 EJ/yr in 2100; (3) The global potential of energy crops will be strongly affected by variation of animal food demand in the developing region.