Keywords: dynamic strategic planning, technology policy, systems analysis, risk analysis, decision analysis, economic evaluation, real options, electric vehicles, alternative fuel vehicles
Dynamic strategic planning for technology policy
Dynamic Strategic Planning is an effective method for the development of rational policies for the intelligent development of technology or large-scale engineering projects. It is: dynamic, in that it explicitly recognises the risk and uncertainties necessarily associated with any forecast about the future performance and acceptance of any technology, and thus the need to build flexibility into the plan and to adjust the plan according to the events that occur; strategic, in that it seeks long-term benefits rather than myopic, short-term objectives and; planning, in that it develops a process to follow in order to achieve the best possible results for the prevailing circumstances. The paper describes the principles of Dynamic Strategic Planning, indicates specific methods that are effective for carrying them out, and illustrates their use through application to the formulation of policy on low-emission automobiles in the United States.