Ecological risk assessment of herbicides in Japan: Integrating spatiotemporal variation in exposure and effects by using a multimedia model and algal density dynamics models
Application of herbicides to paddy fields in Japan has strong seasonality, and their environmental concentrations exhibit clear spatiotemporal variation. We developed an approach that combines a multimedia environmental exposure model (Grid‐Catchment Integrated Modeling System) and density dynamics models for algae. This approach enabled us to assess ecological risk when the exposure concentration shows spatiotemporal variation. First, risk maps of five herbicides (pretilachlor, butachlor, simetryn, mefenacet, and esprocarb) were created from the spatial predictions of environmental concentrations and IC50s of the herbicides. Simulations of algal density dynamics at high‐risk sites were then conducted by incorporating the predicted temporal dynamics of the environmental concentration of each herbicide at the sites. Our results suggested that the risk of pretilachlor was clearly the highest of the five herbicides, both in terms of the spatial distributions and the temporal durations. This study highlights the importance of integrating exposure models and effect models to clarify spatial and temporal risk and to develop management plans for chemical exposure that shows high spatiotemporal variation. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved
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