Keywords: climate change, South East Asia, models, policies, cooperation, economic development
Economic development and climate change in South East Asia: the SEADICE model and its forecasts for growth prospects and policy strategies
Increased environmental problems in the form of global warming have reshaped human thinking about the prospects of human survival on this planet. The 1996 IPCC study has confirmed that increased GHG concentrations in the atmosphere will substantially increase global temperatures. South East Asia's (SEA) particular vulnerabilities to the impacts of climate change need to be explored. The primary production levels, tourism industry, agricultural productivity, energy sector and urban water supply systems are sensitive to potential climate changes. To address these issues and options, the study undertakes an integrated climate change and economic growth modelling study with a comprehensive coverage of the SEA region. The model is based on the work done by Nordhaus (the DICE model) and Islam (the Asia-DICE model), and named the South East Asia Dynamic Integrated Climate and the Economy (SEADICE) model. The results address issues related to global environmental change and sustainable development for SEA. The results suggest the following: 1) GHG abatement costs are justifiable for the region; 2) optimal abatement control rates are significantly higher compared to other models; and 3) this suggests that regional or country specific abatement policies should be implemented in the region.