ESI/Jacobs were commissioned by a water company in southern England to review the effect of climate change on the deployable output of its groundwater sources. The water company’s main concern was not so much the likely change in total amounts of rainfall but rather the possibility that the temporal pattern of rainfall may change - particularly the distribution between summer and winter and the probability of getting a long sequence of dry weather.
A range of potential future climate sequences were generated and key sub sets were selected for use as inputs to a regional groundwater. This was used to assess the effect on groundwater levels around the sources. The model outputs were processed in a way to support the ongoing development of the company’s water resources plan.