Keywords: energy demand forecasts, energy intensity, comparative analysis, simulation, Eastern Europe, European Union, transition economies, demand management, electricity consumption, Baltic Countries, Lithuania
Energy demand simulation for East European countries
The analysis and created statistical models of energy consumption tendencies in the European Union (EU25), including new countries in transition, are presented. The EU15 market economy countries and countries in transition are classified into six clusters by relative indicators of Gross Domestic Product (GDP/P) and energy demand (W/P) per capita. The specified statistical models of energy intensity W/GDP non-linear stochastic tendencies have been discovered with respect to the clusters of classified countries. The new energy demand simulation models have been developed for the demand management in timeterritory hierarchy in various scenarios of short-term and long-term perspective on the basis of comparative analysis methodology. The non-linear statistical models were modified to GDP, W/P and electricity (E/P) final consumption long-term forecasts for new associated East European countries and, as an example, for the Baltic Countries, including Lithuania.