Inderscience Publishers

Environmental modelling for blue collars

Model complexity and the ‘breakpoint of diminishing returns’; ‘physical’ vs. ‘conceptual’ modelling; the relevance and limits of the heuristic solutions; screening vs. analytical modelling; perceptions of uncertainties, calibration and sensitivity analysis; and the ‘ethics in modelling’ – are only a few issues outstanding in the volatile philosophy of the environmental modelling. Glossing on these, the paper attempts to share a few views on possible manners to serve the growing appetite of emergency managers for ‘simple’ tools of first recourse in crises while also tempering their ‘complexity aversion’, in an environment of, otherwise, a booming complexity.

Keywords: environmental risk, environmental modelling, model complexity, practicality, tradeoffs, system analysis, software development, emergency management, crisis management, disaster management, ethics, conceptual modelling, screening, analytical modelling, uncertainty, calibration, sensitivity analysis

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