Keywords: business planning, conceptual models, SCM, supply chain management, disruption sources, resilience, risk estimation, risk exposure, risk handling, supply chain flow, estimates, disruption risks, natural resources, final products, delivered products, focal units, expected result impact, known result impact, negative result impact, business continuity, risk management
Estimation of disruption risk exposure in supply chains
The purpose of the paper is to provide more knowledge on how to estimate disruption risk exposure in the supply chain by developing a conceptual estimation model. The purpose is also to shortly illustrate and discuss by help of a case the possibilities to adapt this theoretical model for use in everyday practice. The developed model, which links disruption risk to disruption source, covers all flow-related disruption risks in the total supply chain from natural resources to delivered final product, seen from the angle of an individual focal unit in the supply chain. The model classifies the risk exposure into 15 different risk exposure boxes, of which 12 have 'expected result impact' and three have 'known result impact', providing a total negative result impact. The positioning of the model against other theoretical models revealed that the developed model presents a more complete and partly new structure for estimation of disruption risk exposure.