Keywords: CO2 emission reduction to 2030, marginal abatement costs, technological breakthrough, power generation technologies, value of technology change, European Union
European Union post-Kyoto scenarios: benefits from accelerated technology progress
This paper addresses the issue of the potential benefits from technological change in post Kyoto CO2 emission reduction scenarios for the EU energy system. The first section provides an assessment, based on the PRIMES model results, of the changes that will occur in a post Kyoto context for the EU energy system. The second section considers the contribution and the benefits of accelerating the progress of key energy technologies (six alternative technology clusters formulated and examined) in the post Kyoto context. Finally, the paper concludes with the comparison of the alternative scenarios and the corresponding benefits from technology change. The result obtained clearly indicate that any acceleration in improving low-carbon generation technologies and demand side technologies can lead to significant reductions of the compliance costs for the emission reduction scenarios.