Keywords: computational modelling, contract analysis, production sharing contracts, simulation, fiscal system analysis, petroleum agreements, metamodelling, regression analysis, Angola, contractual systems, financial analysis, contract negotiations, cash flow analysis, uncertainty, energy finance
Fiscal system analysis – contractual systems
Production sharing contracts are one of the most popular forms of contractual system used in petroleum agreements around the world, but the manner in which the fiscal terms and contract parameters impact system measures is complicated and not well understood. The purpose of this paper is to quantify the influence of private and market uncertainty in contractual fiscal systems. A meta-modelling approach is employed that couples the results of a simulation model with regression analysis to construct numerical functionals that quantify the fiscal regime. Relationships are derived that specify how the present value, rate of return, and take statistics vary as a function of the system parameters. The deepwater Girassol field development in Angola is taken as a case study.