Inderscience Publishers

Future projections for domestic consumption of dual purpose kerosene in Nigeria

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This paper looks at three socio–economic variables in energy consumption framework for energy planning in Nigeria. The consumption of dual purpose kerosene (DPK) was regressed against the real gross domestic product (GDP), commodity's price, and the lagged variable considering a period of 32 years (1970–2001). A statistical model was developed for the local consumption using partial adjustment model with three independent variables. Some statistical tests were carried out which revealed that consumption was significantly related to the three components. Local consumption of DPK was forecast for the period 2001 to 2025 using three different scenarios of the growth rates (the low, the base and the high growth rates) of the independent variables. Expectedly, result shows that consumption is greatest for high GDP/low price and minimum for low GDP/high price scenario.

Keywords: energy consumption, petroleum products, dual purpose kerosene, DPK, gross domestic product, GDP, fuel prices, modelling, energy policy, Nigeria, domestic consumption

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