Implementation And Applications of a Trajectory Model

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Trajectory models have been used by meteorological community for studying transport phenomena in the atmosphere since many years. In particular they are often applied in environmental problems connected with source-receptor relationship. During emergency, like accidental release of airborne harmful material, they are frequently the first tools used in the analysis of the situation. Later they can be also utilised for diagnostic studies and analyses. One of the problems with long-range atmospheric dispersion models is that on one hand they are very sensitive to weather conditions and on the other hand exact source term is very often unknown. This cause sometimes essential difference in the prediction of the dispersion of the plume. One of the most promising approaches to deal with this problem is application of ensemble technique to long range atmospheric dispersion models.

The existing ENSEMBLE Web site was developed within the 5th Framework Programme of the European Union and is continuously maintained by the REM/IES JRC. In general ENSEMBLE addresses the problem of achieving a common coherent strategy across European national emergency management, when national long-range dispersion forecasts differ from one another during an accidental atmospheric release of radioactive material.

This is an advanced tool not only for models comparison but also for carrying out variety of analyses and maybe first of all is an approach trying to take advantage of using different results coming from many atmospheric dispersion models. Hence ENSEMBLE can be seen as a webbased decision support system for real-time exchange and evaluation of national long-range dispersion forecasts of nuclear releases which is particularly important for transboundary effects.

This report is devoted to the implementation of a trajectory model FLEXTRA and describes all the relevant issues to its implementation and application. The trajectory model FLEXTRA is an additional tool to existing ENSEMBLE Web site that can be used in different analyses of the situation arisen after accidental release. The report is organised as follows: first general ideas of using trajectory models are presented, then requests on functionality of such models are analysed. Further on characteristics and implementation of the FLEXTRA model is described and finally examples of application of FLEXTRA to Algerciras and Paks cases are shortly discussed.

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