Keywords: Okavango River basin, uncertainty analysis, AM, adaptive management, global sensitivity analysis, QnD model, decision analysis, hydrological modelling, ecological modelling, Angola, Namibia, Botswana, river basin modelling, transboundary water resources, risk assessment
Incorporating uncertainty into adaptive, transboundary water challenges: a conceptual design for the Okavango River basin
In this paper, we present a review and conceptual design to integrate hydrological/ecological models, global uncertainty and sensitivity analysis, integrative modelling and decision analysis for complex and adaptive transboundary challenges. The research uses the transboundary issues within the Okavango River basin, a shared water resource among the nations of Angola, Namibia and Botswana, as an example for constructing these integrated tools. The objective of this paper is to present a design that integrates a set of tools that builds systematically on past basin modelling research to incorporate the inherent uncertainty within the system and its application for answering practical management questions.