Keywords: layered elastic pavements, mechanistic–empirical design, pavement design, reliability, backcalculation, design reliability, mechanical responses, axle load spectrums, strain, fatigue cracking, loading, road traffic, layer moduli, pavement life, roads
Incorporation of reliability of M–E pavement design using variations of backcalculated pavement layer moduli
This paper describes how the uncertainty of estimated variables of the in situ backcalculated moduli can be incorporated in a mechanistic–empirical (M–E) design procedure to determine pavement design reliability. The mean values and standard deviations of backcalculated layer moduli were used as inputs to predict the variance of mechanical responses from the multilayer pavement system using axle load spectrums. The Rosenblueth method is used to estimate the expected value and variance of the computed strains on the basis of backcalculated layer moduli. The developed FORTRAN program, RELIPAVE, has the capacity to consider the reliability of fatigue cracking. The research shows that the Rosenblueth method can help to clarify a pavement's mechanical response under the influence of loading, traffic, and layer moduli. Therefore, the proposed procedure can be used as an effective decision–making tool for engineers to predict the probability of pavement life using FWD test.