Keywords: infrastructure planning, long–term planning, project appraisal, port planning, stochastic business case, uncertainty, strategic decision making, spatial planning, ports, critical infrastructures
Infrastructure planning under uncertainty: a case study
The future of a port is determined by its long–term strategy. In most ports, space is scarce and valuable, which means that the available land must be used strategically. The alternatives for the cargo sectors and clients that can be placed at available locations are numerous and complex. The traditional method of project appraisal that relies on financial methods such as discounted cash flow method (DCF) and produces a single value on which to base a decision is less suitable under great uncertainty. In this paper we set up a stochastic business case to aid strategic decision–making for a project involving spatial planning of a port area in Western Europe.