climate modeling Articles
-
Ability of global climate models at a regional scale over Australia
We evaluate the coupled climate models used in the fourth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Our evaluation is focused on twelve regions of Australia for the daily simulation of precipitation, minimum temperature and maximum temperature. We base our evaluation on Probability Density Functions (PDFs). We introduce a simple quantitative measure of how well ...
-
Expected trends of regional climate change for the Carpathian Basin for the 21st century
The Regional Climate Models (RCMs) nested into Global Climate Models (GCMs) are expected to improve the regional climate change scenarios for the European subregions. This paper discusses the RCM experiments for the end of the 21st century using the model Providing REgional Climates for Impact Studies (PRECIS) for the Carpathian Basin. Expected future changes in mean values, distributions and ...
-
On the consideration of mesoscale transports in climate modelling
The dynamical effect of land surface heterogeneity on heat fluxes in the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) is investigated using numerical simulations with a nonhydrostatic model over a wide range of grid resolutions. It is commonly assumed that mesoscale or dynamical fluxes associated with mesoscale and convective circulations simulated by a high-resolution model (subgrid (SG) model) on the ...
-
Thermodynamics of climate change
Climate modelling is discussed from a thermodynamic point of view, using a control volume approach in which the environment and a superficial layer of the earth form the volume, concentric spherical shell of predominantly gaseous content with a thin layer of the earth. An energy equation that includes anthropogenic heat is suggested based on the mass balance of fossil fuel introduced into the ...
-
Uncertainty of climate change and its impact on reference evapotranspiration in Rasht City, Iran
There are many factors of uncertainty regarding the impact of climate change on reference evapotranspiration (ETo). The accuracy of the results is strictly related to these factors and ignoring any one of them reduces the precision of the results, and reduces their applicability for decision makers. In this study, the uncertainty related to two ETo models, the Hargreaves-Samani (HGS) and ...
-
Towards a definition of climate science
The intrinsic difficulties in building realistic climate models and in providing complete, reliable and meaningful observational datasets, and the conceptual impossibility of testing theories against data imply that the usual Galilean scientific validation criteria do not apply to climate science. The different epistemology pertaining to climate science implies that its answers cannot be singular ...
-
Analysis of regional climate change modelling experiments for the Carpathian Basin
In the last decade, Regional Climate Models (RCMs) nested in Global Climate Models (GCMs) have become essential tools to make climate projections with fine spatial resolution. In this paper, control runs of the RCMs RegCM and PRECIS are discussed and compared for the Central/Eastern European region. Both RCMs are three-dimensional, sigma-coordinate, primitive equation models, for the control ...
-
Simulated precipitation response to SST forcing and potential predictability in the region of the South Atlantic convergence zone
The sensitivity of the precipitation response in the South Atlantic convergence zone (SACZ) to sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly is investigated by an inter-model comparison study of ensembles of multidecadal integrations of two atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs)—version 1 of the NASA Seasonal-to-Interannual Prediction Project (NSIPP-1) model, and the NCAR community climate model ...
-
Climate change adaptation in British Columbia communities: lessons for planners
The purpose of this paper is to explore community adaptation to climate change. We illustrate how a workshop format can be used to raise awareness about the need for adaptation in communities and to engage planners in finding solutions. Professionals can no longer rely on the past as a proxy for the future. Communities will have to become more resilient to an uncertain future, and planners must ...
-
Climate change and Water Harvesting possibilities in arid regions
In arid and semiarid regions, water resources are scarce and need climate change impact assessment for water conservation after each storm rainfall as rainfall harvesting in urban areas and runoff harvesting in rural areas. It is the main purpose of this paper to present necessary Water Harvesting (WH) preparation principles by considering simple climate change models for the Arabian Peninsula ...
-
Climate variations for the last millennium
Variability and long-term climate change in the Baltic Sea region have been investigated in a 1000-year long climate model simulation. For the first time long-term climate variations over the region have been simulated with a regional climate model. Solar variability, changes in orbital parameters and changes in greenhouse gases over the last millennium are used to force the models. The results ...
-
Modelling land cover change impact on the summer climate of the Marmara Region, Turkey
Landscape characteristics of the Marmara Region, Turkey, changed significantly after the 1980s as a result of rapid industrialisation and population increase. To investigate the effects of these land cover changes on the summer regional climate, we implemented 1975 and 2005 land cover maps of the region produced from Landsat images into the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) regional climate ...
-
Performance evaluation of regional climate models (RCMs) in determining precipitation characteristics for Gothenburg, Sweden
Regional climate models (RCMs) are used for forecasting future climate including precipitation characteristics. Performances of five different RCMs for predicting the precipitation characteristics for Gothenburg, Sweden were evaluated against the daily observed precipitation over the period 1961 to 2009. Statistical analysis was done on annual, monthly, multi-daily, and daily data. The ...
-
Downscaling of precipitation on a lake basin: evaluation of rule and decision tree induction algorithms
We investigate the performance of existing state-of-the-art rule induction and tree algorithms, namely Single Conjunctive Rule Learner, Decision Table, M5 Model Tree, Decision Stump and REPTree. Downscaling models are developed using these algorithms to obtain projections of mean monthly precipitation to lake-basin scale in an arid region in India. The effectiveness of these algorithms is ...
-
The optimal paths of climate change mitigation and adaptation under certainty and uncertainty
Tradeoffs between climate change mitigation and adaptation policies are explored under both certainty and uncertainty with learning using a numerical two-period decision model. We first replicate a version of the Adaptation in DICE climate model (AD-DICE) (de Bruin et al., 2009), which modifies the Dynamic Integrated model of Climate and the Economy (DICE) (Nordhaus and Boyer, 2000) to ...
-
Use of very high resolution climate model data for hydrological modelling: estimation of potential evaporation
Climate model data are increasingly used to drive hydrological models, to assess the possible impacts of climate change on river flows. Hydrological models often require potential evaporation (PE) from vegetation, alongside precipitation, but PE is not usually output by climate models so has to be estimated from other meteorological variables. Here, the Penman–Monteith formula is applied to ...
-
Northern shipping: Is the anticipated climate boost a bust?
Visions of safe passage for cargo ships across the Arctic between Europe and Asia have sprung up in recent years as ice-free zones have appeared along the northern coasts of Russia and Canada. Some shipping companies already have begun taking advantage of the change. But dreamers and schemers may want to think twice about the long-term promise of the so-called Northern Sea Route for boosting ...
By Ensia
-
Short-term precipitation extremes in regional climate simulations for Sweden
Climate change is expected to generate higher short-term precipitation intensities, which may have negative consequences in terms of, for example, increased risk of flooding and sewer overflow. In this study, extreme precipitation for durations between 30 min and 1 day in simulations with the RCA3 regional climate model (RCM) for Sweden are analysed. As compared with daily observations in the ...
-
Less snow won’t end blizzard hazard
There’s still a chance that some people who dream of a white Christmas will get their wish. While there may be less snow falling overall in a warming world, there will still be blizzards. Paul O’Gorman, an atmospheric scientist at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology in the US, reports in Nature that he studied daily snowfall in the northern hemisphere through the prism of 20 ...
-
Frequency analysis of seasonal extreme precipitation in southern Quebec (Canada): an evaluation of regional climate model simulation with respect to two gridded datasets
This study proposes an assessment procedure to compare two gridded (Cubic Spline, CS, and ANUSPLIN) datasets and one regional climate model simulation series (CRCM 4.1.1) of seasonal maximum precipitation (SMP) over southern Quebec (Canada). This study consists of: (1) identifying the appropriate models that could provide the most accurate SMP estimates at a particular grid point; (2) ...
Need help finding the right suppliers? Try XPRT Sourcing. Let the XPRTs do the work for you