flood forecasting Articles
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A comparative study of different objective functions to improve the flood forecasting accuracy
In the calibration of flood forecasting models, different objective functions and their combinations could lead to different simulation results and affect the flood forecast accuracy. In this paper, the Xinanjiang model was chosen as the flood forecasting model and shuffled complex evolution (SCE-UA) algorithm was used to calibrate the model. The performance of different objective functions ...
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Research on classified real-time flood forecasting framework based on K-means cluster and rough set
This research presents a new classified real-time flood forecasting framework. In this framework, historical floods are classified by a K-means cluster according to the spatial and temporal distribution of precipitation, the time variance of precipitation intensity and other hydrological factors. Based on the classified results, a rough set is used to extract the identification rules for ...
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Real-time correction of antecedent precipitation for the Xinanjiang model using the genetic algorithm
The Xinanjiang model has been successfully and widely applied in humid and semi-humid regions of China for rainfall–runoff simulation and flood forecasting. However, its forecasting precision is seriously affected by antecedent precipitation (Pa). Commonly applied methods relying on the experience of individual modelers are not standardized and difficult to transfer. In particular, the ...
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Evaluating the adequateness of kinematic-wave routing for flood forecasting in midstream channel reaches of Taiwan
An efficient flood forecasting system can provide useful advance information for evacuating people in order to mitigate potential disaster. In Taiwan, a kinematic-wave approximation of the full dynamic-wave equations is usually adopted in upstream and midstream steep channel reaches to avoid numerical instability when performing a flood forecast. Although the kinematic-wave approximation does ...
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A flood forecasting neural network model with genetic algorithm
It will be useful to attain a quick and accurate flood forecasting, particularly in a flood-prone region. The accomplishment of this objective can have far reaching significance by extending the lead time for issuing disaster warnings and furnishing ample time for citizens in vulnerable areas to take appropriate action, such as evacuation. In this paper, a novel hybrid model based on recent ...
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Real-time flood stage forecasting by Variable Parameter Muskingum Stage hydrograph routing method
The application of a Variable Parameter Muskingum Stage (VPMS) hydrograph routing method for real-time flood forecasting at a river gauging site is demonstrated in this study. The forecast error is estimated using a two-parameter linear autoregressive model with its parameters updated at every routing time interval of 30 minutes at which the stage observations are made. This hydrometric ...
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Effect of data time interval on real-time flood forecasting
Rainfall–runoff is a complicated nonlinear process and many data mining tools have demonstrated their powerful potential in its modelling but still there are many unsolved problems. This paper addresses a mostly ignored area in hydrological modelling: data time interval for models. Modern data collection and telecommunication technologies can provide us with very high resolution data with ...
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Quasi-online flood forecasting downstream of dams based on rainfall thresholds
Dams are built to supply water to users and often to protect people and properties against floods in downstream areas. Efficiency of dams for flood control is improved substantially if a flood forecasting system is implemented. Rainfall threshold (RT) depths correspond to the occurrence of critical discharge at given cross-sections for given rainfall durations and initial soil moisture ...
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Flood Forecasting and Warning Services in general
An exact and early Flood Forecasting allows accordant early warning of persons concerned as much as the establishment of necessary measures (see Flood Protection, Evacuation and Rescue Plans). Therefore, it can make an important contribution to avoid damage. Flood Forecasting is in most cases based on extensive numerical modelling which is created with hydrological and hydraulic models of ...
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Flood forecasting within urban drainage systems using NARX neural network
Urbanization activity and climate change increase the runoff volumes, and consequently the surcharge of the urban drainage systems (UDS). In addition, age and structural failures of these utilities limit their capacities, and thus generate hydraulic operation shortages, leading to flooding events. The large increase in floods within urban areas requires rapid actions from the UDS operators. ...
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Real-time urban flood forecasting and modelling – a state of the art
All urban drainage networks are designed to manage a maximum rainfall. This situation implies an accepted flood risk for any greater rainfall event. This risk is often underestimated as factors such as city growth and climate change are ignored. But even major structural changes cannot guarantee that urban drainage networks would cope with all future rain events. Thus, being able to forecast ...
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Application of self-organising maps and multi-layer perceptron-artificial neural networks for streamflow and water level forecasting in data-poor catchments: the case of the Lower Shire floodplain, Malawi
With a paradigm shift from flood protection to flood risk management that emphasises learning to live with the floods, flood forecasting and warning have received more attention in recent times. However, for developing countries, the lack of adequate and good quality data to support traditional hydrological modelling for flood forecasting and warning poses a big challenge. While there has been ...
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Evaluation of a near-real time NEXRAD DSP product in evolution of heavy rain events on the Upper Guadalupe River Basin, Texas
This study evaluates the Next Generation Weather Radar (NEXRAD) Digital Storm-Total Precipitation product (DSP) by analyzing 30 rain events on the Upper Guadalupe River Basin, Texas, from September 2006 to May 2007. The DSP product provides relatively accurate information on the evolution of rain events at high spatial and temporal resolutions in near-real time. This is particularly important ...
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Sensitivity analysis of surface runoff generation in urban flood forecasting
Reliable flood forecasting requires hydraulic models capable to estimate pluvial flooding fast enough in order to enable successful operational responses. Increased computational speed can be achieved by using a 1D/1D model, since 2D models are too computationally demanding. Further changes can be made by simplifying 1D network models, removing and by changing some secondary elements. The Urban ...
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Real-time flood forecast using the coupling support vector machine and data assimilation method
An accurate and real-time flood forecast is a crucial nonstructural step to flood mitigation. A support vector machine (SVM) is based on the principle of structural risk minimization and has a good generalization capability. The ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) is a proven method with the capability of handling nonlinearity in a computationally efficient manner. In this paper, a type of SVM model ...
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Improving flood forecasting in Bangladesh using an artificial neural network
A river stage neural network model has been developed to study and predict the water level of Dhaka city. A total of five stations located at the border area of Bangladesh on the Ganges, Brahmaputra and Meghna rivers are selected as input nodes and Dhaka on the Buriganga river is the output node for the neural network. This model is trained with river stage data for a period of 1998 to 2004 and ...
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Evaluating the snow component of a flood forecasting model
The objective of this study is to evaluate the snow routine of a semi-distributed conceptual water balance model calibrated to streamflow data alone. The model is used for operational flood forecasting in 57 catchments in Austria and southern Germany with elevations ranging 200–3,800 m a.s.l. We compared snow water equivalents (SWE) simulated by the hydrologic model with snow covered ...
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Real-time forecasting urban drainage models: full or simplified networks?
Lead time between rainfall prediction results and flood prediction results obtained by hydraulic simulations is one of the crucial factors in the implementation of real-time flood forecasting systems. Therefore, hydraulic simulation times must be as short as possible, with sufficient spatial and temporal flood distribution modelling accuracy. One of the ways to reduce the time required to run ...
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Perceived community-based flood adaptation strategies under climate change in Nepal
Climate induced natural disasters and extreme events are escalating with the increased variability of climatic parameters due to climate change. This study assesses the flood adaptation strategies that are applicable at the community level in two Terai districts of Nepal. The data were collected through three focus group discussions and 210 household surveys. The study revealed that flood ...
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Flood and Coastal Risk Management - Case Study England
The Environment Agency is the principal flood risk management operating authority. It has the power (but not the legal obligation) to manage flood risk from designated main rivers and the sea. These functions in relation to other rivers (defined as ordinary watercourses) in England and Wales are undertaken by Local Authorities or Internal Drainage Boards. The Environment Agency is also ...
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