flood prediction Articles
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Uncertainty in design flood profiles derived by hydraulic modelling
The scientific literature has widely shown that hydraulic modelling is affected by many sources of uncertainty (e.g. model structure, input data, model parameters). However, when hydraulic models are used for engineering purposes (e.g. flood defense design), there is still a tendency to make a deterministic use of them. More specifically, the prediction of flood design profiles is often based ...
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Project - Northumbrian Water
Project Description Northumbrian Water provides water and sewerage services to 2.7 million people in the North East of England with 27,000 km of sewers and cleared 9500 blockages in 2019. StormHarvester and Northumbrian Water have worked together since early 2018 to analyse pumping chambers in Newcastle-Upon-Tyne in Northern England. This discrete network was chosen due to the location of ...
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Sensitivity analysis for comparison, validation and physical legitimacy of neural network-based hydrological models
This paper addresses the difficult question of how to perform meaningful comparisons between neural network-based hydrological models and alternative modelling approaches. Standard, goodness-of-fit metric approaches are limited since they only assess numerical performance and not physical legitimacy of the means by which output is achieved. Consequently, the potential for general application or ...
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Different approaches for modelling of sewer caused urban flooding
The correct prediction of flooding in urban areas is an important challenge to secure the values and fulfil public regulations. Traditional sewer simulations deliver the basic information for a rudimental flood protection, but the interaction between sewer and surface runoff can only be considered by a bi-directional modelling. Therefore detailed information about the relevant structures on the ...
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Measuring winter precipitation and snow on the ground in northern polar regions
Measuring winter precipitation in cold and windy regions is recognized as a difficult task. Nonetheless, the accurate measurement of solid precipitation provides important input data for predicting snowmelt floods and avalanche danger and for monitoring climate change. The difficulties in measuring solid precipitation are associated with environmental factors and technological issues. ...
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Quantification of increased flood risk due to global climate change for urban river management planning
Global climate change is expected to affect future rainfall patterns. These changes should be taken into account when assessing future flooding risks. This study presents a method for quantifying the increase in flood risk caused by global climate change for use in urban flood risk management. Flood risk in this context is defined as the product of flood damage potential and the probability of ...
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Warnings of increased UK flooding as a result of climate change
Intense bouts of flooding in the UK have increased substantially this century, with the frequency set to rise even further as a result of climate change. That is the latest warning from the Environment Agency, which said severe flooding over the last decade was linked to extreme weather events and rising sea levels. The agency highlighted Met Office data showing that there have been 17 ...
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Is our ability to predict floods drying up?
The ability to anticipate floods and mobilize a timely response — increasingly a life-and-death matter as extreme weather events become more common — depends to a sobering extent on 10 satellites that measure precipitation and beam data to Earth, where governments and emergency response teams use them to guide efforts to protect people and property. Even more sobering: Four of the 10 ...
By Ensia
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Flooding management using hybrid model predictive control: application to the Spanish Ebro River
In this paper, the problem of flooding management using hybrid model predictive control is presented and applied to the Ebro River in Spain. The Ebro River presents flooding episodes in the city of Zaragoza during spring when snow melts in the Pyrenees. To avoid flooding in populated areas, some land outside the city is prepared for flooding. This paper presents a control approach to determine ...
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A simple numerical method for snowmelt simulation based on the equation of heat energy
This paper presents one-dimensional numerical model for snowmelt/accumulation simulations, based on the equation of heat energy. It is assumed that the snow column is homogeneous at the current time step; however, its characteristics such as snow density and thermal conductivity are treated as functions of time. The equation of heat energy for snow column is solved using the implicit finite ...
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Daily runoff prediction using the linear and non-linear models
Runoff prediction, as a nonlinear and complex process, is essential for designing canals, water management and planning, flood control and predicting soil erosion. There are a number of techniques for runoff prediction based on the hydro-meteorological and geomorphological variables. In recent years, several soft computing techniques have been developed to predict runoff. There are some ...
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Impact of uncertainties in discharge determination on the parameter estimation and performance of a hydrological model
Uncertainties in discharge determination may have serious consequences for hydrological modelling and resulting discharge predictions used for flood forecasting, climate change impact assessment and reservoir operation. The aim of this study is to quantify the effect of discharge errors on parameters and performance of a conceptual hydrological model for discharge prediction applied to two ...
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Revisiting an early PFR case study from Berkshire
Blast from the past: revisiting an early customer of Aquobex flood-resilience products A recent video (below) from the Ox-Cam Pathfinder Project, part of a mini-series of interviews to encourage Property Flood Resilience (PFR), was an interesting find for us. Not only does the 5-part series discuss the various flooding problems residents and small business owners find themselves in, but ...
By Aquobex
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Chapter 1 - natural and human-made disasters
Natural disasters, or "Acts of God", according to conventional wisdom, are unpredictable and unpreventable, whereas human-made disasters, or "Acts of Man", are taken to be both predictable and preventable. Furthermore, "Acts of Man", are perceived as more catastrophic and destructive than "Acts of God". The fact is, these commonly accepted perceptions, ...
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Comparison between capabilities of HEC–RAS and MIKE11 hydraulic models in river flood risk modelling (a case study of Sungai Kayu Ara River basin, Malaysia)
River flood risk map prediction is a combination of hydrological modelling, hydraulic modelling, river flood visualisation and river flood risk mapping. Two hydraulic models were applied in this research regarding their capabilities in river flood risk studies. These are MIKE11 developed by Danish Hydraulic Institute (DHI) and HEC–RAS4.0 by US Army Corps of Engineers. These two hydraulic models ...
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Inflatable cofferdams for commercial properties
Water is a huge problem for owners of commercial properties. Unpredictable weather events such as hurricanes and major downpours take water from the air and deposit it on the ground, and of course that water will find its way into ponds, lakes, rivers and streams. If those bodies cannot cope with the volume of water, then that water will end up where people do not need it to be. If you are the ...
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A methodology for linking 2D overland flow models with the sewer network model SWMM 5.1 based on dynamic link libraries
Pluvial flooding in urban areas is characterized by a gradually varying inundation process caused by surcharge of the sewer manholes. Therefore urban flood models need to simulate the interaction between the sewer network and the overland flow in order to accurately predict the flood inundation extents. In this work we present a methodology for linking 2D overland flow models with the storm ...
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Modelling the impact of urbanization on flood frequency relationships in the UK
This paper investigates the effect of urbanization on the three key statistics used to establish flood frequency curves when combining the index flood method with the method of L-moments for estimating distribution parameters, i.e. the median annual maximum peak flow (the index flood), and the high-order L-moment ratios L-CV and L-SKEW. An existing procedure employing catchment descriptors was ...
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Method for consequence curves as applied to flood risks
This article summarises research intended to expand current study methodologies targeting flood risks with regard to specific issues and emergency preparedness requirements of municipalities. Various methods are currently available to predict the consequences of flooding risks. DOMINO is one such tool used to study flooding risks from natural events or from potential dam breaks. A complementary ...
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A new modified nonlinear Muskingum model and its parameter estimation using the adaptive genetic algorithm
First, a novel nonlinear Muskingum flood routing model with a variable exponent parameter and simultaneously considering the lateral flow along the river reach (named VEP-NLMM-L) was developed in this research. Then, an improved real-coded adaptive genetic algorithm (RAGA) with elite strategy was applied for precise parameter estimation of the proposed model. The problem was formulated as a ...
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