hydrologic forecasting Articles

  • Modelling provenance in hydrologic science: a case study on streamflow forecasting

    The web, and more recently the concept and technology of the Semantic Web, has created a wealth of new ideas and innovative tools for data management, integration and computation in an open framework and at a very large scale. One area of particular interest to the science of hydrology is the capture, representation, inference and presentation of provenance information: information that helps ...


    By IWA Publishing

  • A novel visual modeling system for time series forecast: application to the domain of hydrology

    Accurate and reliable forecasts of key hydrological variables such as stream flow are of importance due to their profound impacts on real world water resources applications. Data-driven methods have proven their applicability to modeling complex and non-linear hydrological processes. This paper presents a novel visual modeling system that has been developed to overcome the problems involved in ...


    By IWA Publishing

  • Hydrologic forecasting using artificial neural networks: a Bayesian sequential Monte Carlo approach

    Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods are known to be very effective for the state and parameter estimation of nonlinear and non-Gaussian systems. In this study, SMC is applied to the parameter estimation of an artificial neural network (ANN) model for streamflow prediction of a watershed. Through SMC simulation, the probability distribution of model parameters and streamflow estimation is ...


    By IWA Publishing

  • Probabilistic streamflow forecasts based on hydrologic persistence and large-scale climate signals in central Texas

    Skillful streamflow forecasts at seasonal lead times may be useful to water managers seeking to provide reliable water supplies and maximize system benefits. In this study, streamflow autocorrelation and large-scale climate information are used to generate probabilistic streamflow forecasts for the Lower Colorado River system in central Texas. A number of potential predictors are evaluated for ...


    By IWA Publishing

  • Reservoir optimization model incorporating inflow forecasts with various lead times as hydrologic state variables

    This paper presents two Stochastic Dynamic Programming models (SDP) to investigate the potential value of inflow forecasts with various lead times in hydropower generation. The proposed SDP frameworks generate hydropower operating policies for the Ertan hydropower station, China. The objective function maximizes the total hydropower generation with the firm capacity committed for the system. The ...


    By IWA Publishing

  • History and perspectives of hydrological catchment modelling

    This paper presents a brief historical excursus on the development of hydrological catchment models together with a number of possible future perspectives. Given the wide variety of available hydrological models which, according to the embedded level of prior physical information, vary from the simple input–output lumped models to complex physically meaningful ones, the paper suggests how ...


    By IWA Publishing

  • Flood Forecasting and Warning Services in general

    An exact and early Flood Forecasting allows accordant early warning of persons concerned as much as the establishment of necessary measures (see Flood Protection, Evacuation and Rescue Plans). Therefore, it can make an important contribution to avoid damage. Flood Forecasting is in most cases based on extensive numerical modelling which is created with hydrological and hydraulic models of ...


    By IWA Publishing

  • Evaluating the snow component of a flood forecasting model

    The objective of this study is to evaluate the snow routine of a semi-distributed conceptual water balance model calibrated to streamflow data alone. The model is used for operational flood forecasting in 57 catchments in Austria and southern Germany with elevations ranging 200–3,800 m a.s.l. We compared snow water equivalents (SWE) simulated by the hydrologic model with snow covered ...


    By IWA Publishing

  • Internal phosphorus load in a mexican reservoir: Forecast and validation

    To determine the internal phosphorus load (IPL) as a function of redox potential (Eh) in a Mexican reservoir, we extrapolate the results from a phosphorus (P) release experiment to temporal and spatial variations of Eh in sediments, obtaining an IPL‐Eh of 24.2 ± 2.5 t/yr. This result is compared to the P mass balance (MB) in the reservoir, where the IPL‐MB is determined as the difference ...


    By John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  • Flood occurrence hazard forecasting based on geographical information system

    The application of Geographical Information system (GIS) in modeling flood and its prediction in catchments offers considerable potential. Several examples illustrate simple GIS techniques to produce flood hazard indices or its zonation using hydrologic-type models. Existing flood models can also be loosely coupled to a GIS, such as the HMS (Hydrological Modeling System) model. Forethermore, ...

  • Global study of lakes enhances understanding of hydrological cycle

    We now have much more robust data available on the amount of water in lakes worldwide thanks to a comprehensive database created by researchers at McGill University in Montreal. The McGill scientists discovered the total shoreline of the world’s lakes is more than four times longer than the global ocean coastline. At 7 million kilometers, this is 10 times the distance from the Earth to the ...


    By Fluence Corporation

  • Improving flood forecasting in Bangladesh using an artificial neural network

    A river stage neural network model has been developed to study and predict the water level of Dhaka city. A total of five stations located at the border area of Bangladesh on the Ganges, Brahmaputra and Meghna rivers are selected as input nodes and Dhaka on the Buriganga river is the output node for the neural network. This model is trained with river stage data for a period of 1998 to 2004 and ...


    By IWA Publishing

  • Effect of data time interval on real-time flood forecasting

    Rainfall–runoff is a complicated nonlinear process and many data mining tools have demonstrated their powerful potential in its modelling but still there are many unsolved problems. This paper addresses a mostly ignored area in hydrological modelling: data time interval for models. Modern data collection and telecommunication technologies can provide us with very high resolution data with ...


    By IWA Publishing

  • Enhancements in Meteorological and Hydrological Models Using Soil Moisture Data

    It has long been known that there is a strong relationship between soil water content and the health and yield of crops. But only in the past few decades has science quantified the specifics of these relationships. This research has expanded to develop a relationship between soil moisture levels and the impact on meteorological and hydrological models and forecasts. ...

  • Impact of uncertainties in discharge determination on the parameter estimation and performance of a hydrological model

    Uncertainties in discharge determination may have serious consequences for hydrological modelling and resulting discharge predictions used for flood forecasting, climate change impact assessment and reservoir operation. The aim of this study is to quantify the effect of discharge errors on parameters and performance of a conceptual hydrological model for discharge prediction applied to two ...


    By IWA Publishing

  • A new hydrological balance and water management issues in Zakynthos Island, Greece

    The use of groundwater resources in Zakynthos Island in the Ionian Sea at central Mediterranean has become extremely intensive during the last decades, due to the high rate of urbanisation, tourist development and irrigated land expansion and is estimated being 15 hm 3 /year. Different methods are being required when water-related sustainability issues are examined like development analysis, ...


    By Inderscience Publishers

  • Integration of an evolutionary algorithm into the ensemble Kalman filter and the particle filter for hydrologic data assimilation

    Data assimilation (DA) methods continue to evolve in the design of streamflow forecasting procedures. Critical components for efficient DA include accurate description of states, improved model parameterizations, and estimation of the measurement error. Information about these components are usually assumed or rarely incorporated into streamflow forecasting procedures. Knowledge of these ...


    By IWA Publishing

  • Similarity-based error prediction approach for real-time inflow forecasting

    Regardless of extensive researches on hydrologic forecasting models, the issue of updating the outputs from forecasting models has remained a main challenge. Most of the existing output updating methods are mainly based on the presence of persistence in the errors. This paper presents an alternative approach to updating the outputs from forecasting models in order to produce more accurate ...


    By IWA Publishing

  • WaterML2.0: development of an open standard for hydrological time-series data exchange

    The increasing global demand on freshwater is resulting in nations improving their terrestrial water monitoring and reporting systems to better understand the availability, and quality, of this valuable resource. A barrier to this is the inability for stakeholders to share information relating to water observations data: traditional hydrological information systems have relied on internal custom ...


    By IWA Publishing

  • Forecasting performance of support vector machine for the Poyang Lake's water level

    The growth of forecasting models has resulted in the development of an excellent model known as the support vector machine (SVM). SVMs can find a global optimal solution equipped with kernel functions. This research trains and tests the SVM network and constructs the support vector regression prediction model by using hydrologic data. Six hydrologic time series were calculated by different ...


    By IWA Publishing

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