risk assessment modeling Articles

Modelling the default risk in large credit portfolios

We propose a reduced-form model for credit risk in a multivariate setting. The default intensities are linear combinations of three independent affine jump-diffusion processes representing the intensities of general, sectoral and idiosyncratic credit events. The model can be efficiently calibrated to term structures of default probabilities and conditional probabilities of default given the ...

Nov. 24, 2010

By Inderscience Publishers

Using reliability and simulation models in business continuity planning

Business continuity planning is a process to ensure that an organisation can continue to function effectively and resiliently when faced with crisis events. A key phase of the process is risk analysis, which involves identifying events, determining causes, and estimating probabilities and impact. In this paper we focus on estimating probabilities. Current practice often relies on ad hoc methods ...

Mar. 27, 2014

By Inderscience Publishers

Dynamic risk assessment model for water quality on projection pursuit cluster

With the aim of reducing the losses from water pollution, a dynamic risk assessment model for water quality is studied in this paper. This model is built on the projection pursuit cluster principle and risk indexes in the complex system, proceeding from the whole structure and its component parts. In this paper, the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process is used to screen out index system and ...

Oct. 5, 2012

By IWA Publishing

Models for reducing the risk of critical networked infrastructures

In this paper, we review the literature studying how to reduce the disruption risk to critical networked infrastructures. This is an important area of research because huge consequences result from infrastructure disruptions. As a result, this research area has grown a lot in the last decade. In this review we discuss articles from the literature, place them into categories, and suggest topics ...

Aug. 29, 2011

By Inderscience Publishers

Numerical modelling of the environmental impact of landfill leachate leakage on groundwater quality – a field application

Waste disposal facilities are mainly responsible for the gradual quality degradation of subsurface freshwater reservoirs. The main objective of this work is to identify the groundwater contamination risk due to potential leachate leakage and seepage beneath the municipal landfill of the City of Patras in Greece. A groundwater and leachate mass transport model of the underlying aquifer was ...

Jul. 4, 2006

By Springer-Verlag GmbH

A risk mitigation approach for concurrent engineering projects

Generally, risks are encountered and generate negative outcomes in concurrent engineering (CE) projects including project delays, cost overruns and unacceptable quality. These outcomes can be avoided by establishing a systematic risk management process. In this research, a risk management approach used is outlined, according to Australia and New Zealand risk management standard (AS/NZS 4360: ...

Jul. 8, 2008

By Inderscience Publishers

Effect of Suspended Uncontaminated Sediment on POP Release

The transport and fate of persistent organic pollutants (POPs) during resuspension events were investigated using a batch mixing technique. This technique allowed for the determination of sorption and desorption kinetics under more realistic mixing conditions than those used in previous investigations. It was demonstrated that sorption follows second-order kinetics that are dependent on both POP ...

Oct. 15, 2013

By John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Steroid oestrogens in the environment: an Australian perspective

Endocrine disrupting compounds (EDCs) have been in the scientific spotlight since the 1980s. However, there has been much less research reported in Australia than in other developed countries and little information is known about how these compounds interact with native Australian species compared to European and North American fauna. This is of concern because Australia has distinct wildlife ...

Dec. 13, 2013

By IWA Publishing

Decision support system for risk management of produced water in offshore oil and gas industries

A decision support system for produced water management (DISSPROWM) in offshore operations is presented. The system determines the risk and hazards to human and marine species from non-carcinogenic and carcinogenic pollutants present in produced water including radionuclides. The DISSPROWM also evaluates best available treatment technology for treating the produced water whose properties are in ...

Feb. 9, 2009

By Inderscience Publishers

From home range dynamics to population cycles: Validation and realism of a common vole population model for pesticide risk assessment

Despite various attempts to establish population models as standard tools in pesticide risk assessment, population models still receive limited acceptance by risk assessors and authorities in Europe. A main criticism of risk assessors is that population models are often not or not sufficiently validated. Hence the realism of population‐level risk assessments conducted with such models remains ...

Oct. 19, 2012

By John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

The development of an integrated model for assessing sustainability of complex systems

Currently, there are numerous indicators (single and composite) for measuring impacts in the three pillars, though current thinking emphasises the need for system thinking rather than the reductionist concept of pillars. Most existing indices/methods measure single aspects of sustainability and the more integrated indicators are aimed at national or global level assessments. A review of existing ...

Sep. 30, 2013

By Inderscience Publishers

Integrated fuzzy-stochastic risk assessment for contaminated groundwater systems

This study advances an integrated fuzzy-stochastic risk assessment (IFSRA) approach for the management of contaminated groundwater systems by systematically quantifying multiple uncertainties associated with site conditions and health impact criteria. The approach is based on fuzzy multi-attribute decision analysis, factorial designs, numerical modelling, and Monte Carlo simulation. The developed ...

Jun. 29, 2011

By Inderscience Publishers

Ecotoxicity of halloysite nanotubes supported palladium nanoparticles on Raphanus sativus L.

Halloysite nanotubes (HNTs) are natural nanomaterials, biocompatible and available in large amounts at low prices. They are emerging nanomaterials with appealing perspectives for application like support for metal nanoparticles (NPs). Potential environmental impacts of NPs can be understood taking into consideration phytotoxicity. Current research focuses on HNTs application in cell or animal ...

Feb. 26, 2016

By John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Is game theory a useful tool for terrorism insurance?

This paper addresses the topic of terrorism insurance. Financial markets and international institutions believe that terrorism risk modelling falls short of making the likelihood of future attacks more predictable and quantifiable. We present the literature of research in the domain of game theory applied to terrorism insurance, we scrutinise the possibility of using evolutionary game theory and ...

Oct. 3, 2007

By Inderscience Publishers

Assessing the risks of pesticides to threatened and endangered species using population modeling: A critical review and recommendations for future work

US legislation requires the US Environmental Protection Agency to ensure that pesticide use does not cause unreasonable adverse effects on the environment, including species listed under the Endangered Species Act (ESA; hereafter referred to as listed species). Despite a long history of population models used in conservation biology and resource management and a 2013 report from the US ...

Mar. 31, 2016

By John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Press or pulse exposures determine the environmental fate of cerium nanoparticles in stream mesocosms

Risk assessment models indicate that stream ecosystems receiving municipal wastewater effluent may have the greatest potential for exposure to manufactured nanoparticles. We determined the fate of cerium oxide (CeO2) nanoparticles in outdoor stream mesocosms using 1) one‐time pulse addition of CeO2 nanoparticles, representative of accidental release and 2) continuous, low‐level press addition ...

Nov. 17, 2015

By John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Abstraction-based analysis of known and unknown vulnerabilities of critical information infrastructures

The systematic protection of critical information infrastructures requires an analytical process to identify the critical components and their interplay, to determine the threats and vulnerabilities, to assess the risks and to prioritise countermeasures where risk is unacceptable. The abstraction-based approach presented here builds on a model-based construction of an attack graph with ...

May 6, 2008

By Inderscience Publishers

Flood risk mapping and vulnerability analysis using GIS: empirical evidences from New Town area, Ondo, Ondo State, Nigeria

Spatial information technologies are changing the way in which decisions are taken in relation to the environment. Geographic information system (GIS) is one of such technologies that help to generate products useful in terrain analysis. In Nigeria, especially in the study area, floodplains and river corridors have been misused resulting in severe environmental hazards. Up-to-date information is ...

Aug. 4, 2011

By Inderscience Publishers

Modelling micro-pollutant fate in wastewater collection and treatment systems: status and challenges

This paper provides a comprehensive summary on modelling of micro-pollutants' (MPs) fate and transport in wastewater. It indicates the motivations of MP modelling and summarises and illustrates the current status. Finally, some recommendations are provided to improve and diffuse the use of such models. In brief, we conclude that, in order to predict the contaminant removal in centralised ...

Nov. 6, 2012

By IWA Publishing

Quantitative microbiological risk assessment of campylobacteriosis cases in the German population due to consumption of chicken prepared in homes

Infection with Campylobacter spp. is one of the leading causes of food poisoning in Europe. In this work, a retail product to consumer model was developed in order to examine how chicken prepared in German homes exposes the consumer to Campylobacter spp. and the level of resulting illness. The model was designed to include a number of important factors in the exposure assessment and starts with ...

May 13, 2008

By Inderscience Publishers