risk modeling Articles

  • Modelling and Managing Flood Risk and Flooding

    The UK’s prestigious Royal Society recently held a discussion group on the subject of Flood Management and Climate Change. With much of the Northern Hemisphere approaching the winter flooding season, we spoke to Wallingford Software’s David Fortune to find out the role of modelling in flood forecasting and flood management. He set out his ideas as follows: We must remember first that, while we ...


    By Innovyze

  • Models for risk management of systems of systems

    This paper addresses the need for developing a body of prescriptive theory and methodology for modelling Systems of Systems (SoS). This will enable analysts to appropriately model and understand the SoS evolving behaviour due to the continued forced changes imposed on them. To place this need in historical perspective, the evolution of the field of systems engineering/analysis is briefly ...


    By Inderscience Publishers

  • A conditional value-at-risk model for insurance products with a guarantee

    We propose a model to select the optimal portfolio which underlies insurance policies with a guarantee. The objective function is defined in order to minimise the conditional value at-risk (CVaR) of the distribution of the losses with respect to a target return. We add operational and regulatory constraints to make the model as flexible as possible when used for real applications. We show that ...


    By Inderscience Publishers

  • Professional services risk modeling tool case study

    Professional Services Risk Modeling Tool (2 of 2) Result: A user-friendly data collection software tool was delivered to the client along with a manual for running and modifying the tool. This tool led the client's agent through a series of data acquisition steps with visual cues, error checking and the ability to add notes and new elements. The tool effectively makes ...


    By Vose Software

  • The importance of risk based conceptual site models

    This article highlights the importance of Conceptual Site Models (CSMs) to NanoRem. CSMs summarise the source-pathway-receptor linkages (SPRL) and significant uncertainties at a site in easily understood diagrams. They are updated as more information becomes available. Used in the relevant legal context, they inform risk assessment and risk management decision making. The NanoRem pilot sites ...


    By NANO IRON s.r.o.

  • Low-dose radiation risk and the linear no-threshold model

    The Linear No-Threshold (LNT) model has been traditionally used in the field of radiation safety. Public attention to and debate on this model increased after estimates that current Computed Tomography (CT) procedures in the USA will ultimately be responsible for up to 2% of cancers. However, there is evidence that in the mGy range, low doses not only cause a relatively low probability of ...


    By Inderscience Publishers

  • Modelling the default risk in large credit portfolios

    We propose a reduced-form model for credit risk in a multivariate setting. The default intensities are linear combinations of three independent affine jump-diffusion processes representing the intensities of general, sectoral and idiosyncratic credit events. The model can be efficiently calibrated to term structures of default probabilities and conditional probabilities of default given the ...


    By Inderscience Publishers

  • A risk management framework and model for pension investment funds

    Risk management in finance is an increasingly important area, which has been highlighted in the midst of the global credit crisis. In this paper, we propose a new risk management model for pension investment funds: a risk management framework and risk measure based on modelling the pension fund value as an option. We review risk management, discussing risk management frameworks and risk ...


    By Inderscience Publishers

  • Models for reducing the risk of critical networked infrastructures

    In this paper, we review the literature studying how to reduce the disruption risk to critical networked infrastructures. This is an important area of research because huge consequences result from infrastructure disruptions. As a result, this research area has grown a lot in the last decade. In this review we discuss articles from the literature, place them into categories, and suggest topics ...


    By Inderscience Publishers

  • A model for risk minimisation on water resource usage failure

    We present a framework for solving the strategic problem of assigning transboundary water resources to demand centres under uncertainty in the water exogenous inflow in the reservoirs and other segments of the basin system along the time horizon. The functional to maximise is the probability of satisfying different targets on the stored water and different demands over a set of scenarios. A ...


    By Inderscience Publishers

  • Modelling, analysis and risk evaluation of resource circulation in Asia

    A considerable amount of resources is exchanged among Japan and other Asian countries. We call it 'global circulation'. Although such circulation currently causes various environmental pollutions, it will become a hopeful measure for resource conservation. For clarifying the conditions for sustainable global circulation, we evaluate several scenarios of the global circulation from the viewpoints ...


    By Inderscience Publishers

  • Nitrate pollution risk assessment: from the model to the indicator

    The diffuse nature of nitrate pollution makes it difficult to evaluate existing or planned measures to reduce it. Tools have therefore been developed to assess this pollution, ranging from simple indicators to complex models. The aim of this paper is to compare indicators and models by analysing results obtained from their individual application to the same area. The pros and cons of each ...


    By Inderscience Publishers

  • Terrorism, biosecurity and endogenous risk

    Bioterrorism and infectious disease are biosecurity threats that can be modelled as biological invasions (e.g. alien species), incorporating the concept of endogenous risk from the environmental economics literature, i.e. that human behaviour may alter, deliberately or unintentionally, the likelihood and severity of these threats. Application of this modelling approach to investment strategy in ...


    By Inderscience Publishers

  • Homeland Security: Managing the Risks

    Untitled Document Following the terrorist attacks on the World Trade Center in New York City on September 11, 2001, the U.S. ...

  • Hydrogeological risk assessment review

    Client: Waste Management Industry Location: UK Services: Hydrogeological risk assessment (HRA) review. Issues: Potential risk to groundwater, leachate levels and maintenance of hydraulic containment, regulatory compliance. Summary: ESI undertook the hydrogeological risk assessment review this ...

  • Copulae and operational risks

    The motivation of this paper is to develop efficient statistical methods aimed at measuring operational risk. A number of recent legislations and market practices are motivating such developments. For instance, 'the New Basel Capital Accord' (Basel II, 2001), published by Basel Committee on Banking supervision, requires financial institutions to measure operational risks, defined as "the risk of ...


    By Inderscience Publishers

  • Increasing the Impact of Risk Assessment

    Improve your risk management programs over time and increase employee safety by making risk assessment a living part of your organisation. By implementing a ‘living’ risk assessment cycle and developing a safety culture, you can: Manage risk more effectively Be better prepared for litigation Reduce overall risk This paper will identify a ...


    By Medgate, Inc

  • Choosing Children’s Environmental Risk

    A model of endogenous risk provides a foundation to study a parent’s child care decisions when the child could be exposed to an environmental hazard (e.g., toxic substance, foodborne pathogen). The parent invests in childcare quality and quantity to reduce the likelihood of a hazard exposure occurring and to reduce its severity if the exposure is realized. We supply conditions to sign ...


    By Springer

  • Supply chain risk management

    The existing models utilise a mean value approach with deterministic failure cost to determine the optimal number of suppliers in the presence of supplier failure risks. The mean value approach assumes, the firm has a linear utility function with respect to the supply disruptions. For major disruptions that could threaten the survival of the firm, the linearity assumption is questionable. ...


    By Inderscience Publishers

  • Risk Regulation and Administrative Constitutionalism

    Keywords: precautionary principle, administrative law, public administration, risk evaluation, deliberative-constitutive paradigm, rational-instrumental paradigm, judicial review Elizabeth Fisher has a long and much respected history of scholarly research on the precautionary principle. In this book, she builds on her previous work and her knowledge of both administrative law and risk ...


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