weather prediction Articles
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Meteorological data from numerical weather prediction or observations for dispersion modelling
Synoptic observations of wind speed, direction, cloud cover, precipitation and temperature are inputs to regulatory dispersion modelling. Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) data generated by national meteorological services are easily formatted for dispersion models. Changing from observations to NWP data raises concerns amongst regulators and model users – how might impact assessments differ if ...
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Dispersion model input parameters from numerical weather prediction or synoptic observations
Regulatory dispersion modelling uses hourly synoptic observations (OBS) from a nearby station. Alternatively, hourly Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) data are useable in air quality management. In parallel runs, OBS data and NWP (two grid scales, ∼60 km and ∼12 km) were input to the meteorological pre–processor of the Met Office NAME III dispersion model. Frequency distribution results for ...
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The Importance of Weather Stations in Monitoring and Predicting Weather Patterns
Weather stations have always played a vital role in monitoring and predicting weather patterns. These stations have become increasingly important in recent years due to the effects of climate change and the need for accurate weather forecasting. This paper explores the significance of weather stations in monitoring and forecasting weather patterns, their importance in various applications, and ...
By JXCT
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Wind resource assessment using numerical weather prediction models and multi–criteria decision making technique: case study (Masirah Island, Oman)
The Authority for Electricity Regulation in Oman has recently announced the implementation of a 500 kW wind farm pilot project in Masirah Island. Detailed wind resource assessment is then required to identify the most suitable location for this project. This paper presents wind resource assessment using nested ensemble numerical weather prediction (NWP) model's approach at 2.8 km resolution and ...
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Comparison of short-term rainfall forecasts for model-based flow prediction in urban drainage systems
Forecast-based flow prediction in drainage systems can be used to implement real-time control of drainage systems. This study compares two different types of rainfall forecast – a radar rainfall extrapolation-based nowcast model and a numerical weather prediction model. The models are applied as input to an urban runoff model predicting the inlet flow to a waste water treatment plant. ...
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Four-dimensional data assimilation method based on SVD: Theoretical aspect
A new method of four-dimensional data assimilation based on Singular Value Decomposition (SVD) is proposed. In it, a set of atmospheric states is obtained by integrating a numerical weather prediction model and simulated observations are taken and calculated from the model variables. Then the SVD technique is used to create the base vectors from this coupled data set. Finally, the analysis is ...
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EMEP Eulerian model for acid deposition over Europe
A 3-D Eulerian acid deposition model has been developed at MSC-W. The model has approximately 50 km horizontal resolution with 20 vertical layers, of which 10 are below 2 km. Meteorological input, from a dedicated weather prediction model, is updated at six-hour intervals. Emission inventories for SO2, NOx (NO + NO2) and NH3, reported officially by individual countries, are used as input data. A ...
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Calculation of the far range atmospheric transport of radionuclides after the Fukushima accident with the atmospheric dispersion model MATCH of the JRODOS system
The paper presents estimates of the far-range atmospheric dispersion of radionuclides after the accident at Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant (NPP), obtained using the long-range atmospheric dispersion model MATCH. Software tools were developed to run MATCH in the EU nuclear emergency response system JRODOS using freely available numerical weather prediction (NWP) data of the Global ...
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Evaluations of numerical weather prediction (NWP) models from the point of view of inputs required by atmospheric dispersion models
Numerical weather prediction (NWP) models are being used to provide inputs of wind fields, vertical temperature and stability structure, surface heat and momentum fluxes, mixing depths, and other parameters to atmospheric dispersion models. However, previous evaluations of NWP models tended to focus more on predictions of weather related parameters, such as rainfall and 500 mb height. An ...
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Marine atmospheric boundary-layer height estimated from NWP model output
The application of the bulk Richardson number approach to determine the height of the marine atmospheric boundary layer from standard output of Numerical Weather Prediction models is discussed. It is argued that over smooth surfaces like the sea, the critical Richardson number can be expected to be smaller than over land. Based on 4 days of intensive measurements of the height of the marine ...
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Monitoring weather and climate from space
State of the art weather forecasting, which has become an essential part of everyday life in Europe, would be almost unthinkable without the reliable operational service delivered by Europe’s meteorological satellite organisation – EUMETSAT. The high-quality data and images are especially relevant in the context of severe weather situations and eather-related natural disasters. They are used by ...
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Assessing meteorological uncertainties in dispersion forecasts using a NWP Ensemble Prediction System
The use of ensembles of meteorological forecasts is explored in the context of dispersion modelling for emergency-response applications such as nuclear accidents or chemical releases. Specification of meteorology is often a major source of uncertainty in dispersion predictions. The ensemble methodology, routinely used in Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP), is followed in which multiple ...
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Neural network-based study for predicting ground-level ozone concentration in large urban areas, applied to the Sao Paulo metropolitan area
Events of high concentration of ground-level ozone constitute a matter of major concern in large urban areas in terms of air quality, and public health. In the Sao Paulo Metropolitan Area (SPMA), air quality data generated by a network of air quality measuring stations have been used in a number of studies correlating ozone formation with different variables. A study was carried out on the ...
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Comparison of statistical methods for downscaling daily precipitation
There are several statistical downscaling methods available for generating local-scale meteorological variables from large-scale model outputs. There is still no universal single method, or group of methods, that is clearly superior, particularly for downscaling daily precipitation. This paper compares different statistical methods for downscaling daily precipitation from numerical weather ...
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Using the HydraProbe soil sensor for determination of flood risk in the New York State Mesonet - Case Study
New York's Mesonet uses the HydraProbe and other meteorological sensors to help forecast flood hazards and climate. In January 2014, the Department of Homeland Security established the New York State Early Warning Weather Detection System. The centerpiece of the system is the New York State Mesonet, a network of 125 weather stations across the state, with at least one site in every county. Each ...
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Uncertainties in the meteorological input of the chemistry-transport models and some examples of their consequences
In this article, selected weather prediction model parameters, which are important for air pollution studies, were verified against measurements at two sounding stations in Finland. In 1996–1998, the short-time model-measurement differences were rather high. The friction velocity was on average overestimated by 30–70%, the mixing height during spring months was underestimated by up to 60%, 2 m ...
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Evaluation of WRF model performance in different European regions with the DELTA–FAIRMODE evaluation tool
One–year (2006) WRF model simulations performed at a European scale and ECMWF–IFS forecasts are compared with 10 m wind speed and 2 m temperature observations from around 1,200 surface stations. A statistical evaluation on the modelled meteorological fields is performed using the DELTA software, developed in the framework of FAIRMODE, the forum for air quality modellers relevant to the ...
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Diesel Cars banned in Oslo to fight air pollution
During one day this week, Oslo will ban diesel cars from the road. The ban went into effect on Tuesday on municipal roads based on a weather forecast that predict stabile weather with no wind. Diesel cars emit less carbon dioxide (CO2) than petrol fueled cars, but emit more nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and particulate matter (PM10). According to the institute of Public health in Norway, air ...
By OPSIS AB
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A methodology for probabilistic real-time forecasting – an urban case study
The phenomenon of urban flooding due to rainfall exceeding the design capacity of drainage systems is a global problem and can have significant economic and social consequences. The complex nature of quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs) from numerical weather prediction (NWP) models has facilitated a need to model and manage uncertainty. This paper presents a probabilistic approach for ...
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Effect of the soil wetness state on the stomatal ozone fluxes over Hungary
A coupled Eulerian photochemical reaction-transport model and a detailed ozone dry deposition model have been utilised for the estimation of stomatal ozone fluxes over Hungary. Ozone concentrations were modelled on an unstructured triangular grid using a method of lines approach to the solution of the reaction-diffusion-advection equations describing ozone formation, transport and deposition. The ...
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