Keywords: nuclear power, nuclear energy, global scenarios, long-term, innovation, performance targets, research, development, demonstration, climate change, emissions, fuel cycles
Long-term performance targets for nuclear energy. Part 1: The global scenario context
This paper outlines a range of scenarios describing what the world's energy system might look like in the middle of the century, and what nuclear energy's role might be. The starting point is the 40 non-greenhouse-gas-mitigation scenarios in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Four illustrative marker scenarios are selected and include growing but varying contributions from nuclear power to electricity supply, while in some scenarios nuclear energy also supplements hydrogen supply by 2050. For each marker scenario, the paper analyses the generic design features of future nuclear power technologies and fuel cycles consistent with the underlying scenario storylines.