Z/Yen Group Limited

Making investment work for the climate - the London Accord


Courtesy of Z/Yen Group Limited

The London Accord is a unique collaboration between investment banks, research houses, academics and NGOs. The London Accord has produced the first ‘open source’ research resource for investors in climate change solutions. The CD and website set out the context for investments in climate change solutions, analyse individual opportunities and discuss the implications for the construction of investment portfolios.

If one believes the following things, then climate change will materially affect future investment opportunities and returns: population growth is predictable: current demographic predictions are valid and imply a global population of approximately 9-10bn in 2050; energy intensity is predictable: that the long-term relationship between GDP per capita and energy demand holds true. This relationship, in turn, depends upon assumptions of lifestyle, consumerism and economic structure, e.g. the ratio of services to manufacturing. The London Accord’s energy demand numbers are based on the IEA’s, which extrapolate from the present on population and economic growth, and assume no discontinuities or unexpected large reductions in population growth; carbon emissions will cost emitters €30 to €40 per tonne: most economic scenarios seem to arrive at a similar range for the cost per tonne. Any cost per tonne above this range merely intensifies the argument. A cost per tonne below this range definitely softens investment decisions based on climate change. Current ETS trading is around €23, and the average over the past 12 months has been around €20.


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