Keywords: aviation issues, air transport, future scenarios, stakeholders, expert perspectives, SSM, soft systems methodology, airlines, airports, exploratory interviews, aviation management, local environment, climate change, peak oil, economic conditions, social norms, demographics, disruptive events, regulations, capacity
Mapping expert perspectives of the aviation sector
Aviation globally is characterised by significant change and consequently the future of the sector has always been difficult to predict. This study adopts a systemic approach based on findings from exploratory interviews with UK aviation academics to: determine the roles of stakeholders in the air transport system; report the current issues facing the sector; explore how these issues interact and impact on the stakeholders in the system; and speculate on the future implications. Six core stakeholders are identified: airlines, airports, consumers, manufacturers, governing institutions and interest groups. Nine core issues are reported, namely: local environment, climate change, peak oil, the state of the economy, social norms, demographics, disruptive events, national (or international) regulations and capacity. A matrix of interactions and their impacts and implications for managing the aviation system is then presented.