Keywords: cascade failures, disaster dynamics, complex systems, causality networks, disaster response, recovery strategy, critical infrastructures, emergency management, simulation, network failures, modelling, emergency preparedness
Modelling of cascading effects and efficient response to disaster spreading in complex networks
In order to assess cascading effects in directed networks, we present a model for the dynamics of failure spreading. The model combines network nodes as active, bistable elements and delayed interactions along directed links. Through simulations, we study the dynamics behaviour of generic sample networks. Besides evaluating the failure cascades, for which we observe a critical threshold for the undamped spreading of failures in a network, we simulated the effect of different strategies for the management of spreading disasters. Our recovery strategies are based on the assumption that the interaction structure of the challenged network remains unchanged, while additional resources for mitigation actions, improving the recovery capacities of system components, can be distributed over the network. The simulations clearly demonstrate that the topology of a network is a crucial factor both for the behaviour under external disturbances and for the optimality of different strategies to cope with an evolving disaster. Our model may be used to improve disaster preparedness and anticipative disaster response management.